514
FXCA20 KWBC 261141
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
741 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUL
26/12UTC: A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING WESTERN PUERTO RICO ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY FAST 20-25KT EASTERLY TRADES. THE
BULK OF THE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS. YET...TRAILING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR ANOTHER WET DAY
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...EXPOSED TO
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR OVER 50MM. EXPECT SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY TO FAVOR MAXIMA NEAR 1 INCH IN SOUTHEAST
PR AND 0.25-0.5 INCHES ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN PR. UNDER FAST
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...EXPECT
AFTERNOON FLARE UPS TO FOCUS IN FAR NORTHWEST PR WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 0.75-1 INCH BEFORE THE CONVECTION EXITS OFFSHORE.
A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS. YET...EXPECT AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO REMAIN
NEAR ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INCREASING
ABOVE AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SMALLER PERTURBATION IN THE
TRADES CROSSES FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON A
DAILY BASIS PRODUCING MAXIMA OVER 0.5 INCHES...WHILE LIGHTER TRADE
WIND SHOWERS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TO AGFFECT EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
THE WESTERN VI. THE PASSAGE OF THE PERTURBATION ON SATURDAY WILL
FAVOR AN INCREASE IN MAXIMA IN NORTHWEST PR TO 1-1.5 INCHES...AND
AN INCREASE IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO 0.5-0.75 INCHES. EXPECT A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AS A DRIER AIR MASS
MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ACCOMPANIED BY AN ENHANCED LOW-LVEL
DIVERGENT PATTERN.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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