186
FXCA20 KWBC 261827
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 26 JUL 2023 AT 1830 UTC: DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED IN MOST OF WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH
THE CYCLE. THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN
SOUTHWEST MEXICO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MOIST PLUME TRAILING A
TROPICAL WAVE. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN PORTIONS OF JALISCO AND
NAYARIT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE 15-25MM/DAY
RANGE. ON THURSDAY...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER IN THE
NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WHERE EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. IN THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL...DIURNAL INSTABILITY
WILOL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAXIMA IN THE
15-25MM RANGE. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
JALISCO/NAYARIT WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECT
MAXIMA GENERALLY LIMITING TO 15-25MM.
A TUTT CENTERS ON A LOW IN WEST CUBA AND IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE
TO CENTER OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM IS
DESTABILIZING THE TROPOSPHERE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS/CUBA AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS REGION ON WEDNESDAY...FURTHERMORE...A LOLW-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WARM SST AND A PRECIPITABLE
WATER POOL EXCEEDING 50MM ARE FAVORING SCATTERED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAHAMAS. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN WEST
CUBA. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES ON THURSDAY TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS AND IN WEST CUBA.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY BEING MODULATED BY
WAVES IN THE TRADES. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS AND ACCUMULATIONS.
WORTH HIGHLIGHTING IS THE PASSAGE OF A WAVE THROUGH HISPANIOLA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN HAITI. THIS WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN JAMAICA ON THURSDAY...TO THEN FOCUS IN
NORTHEAST CENTRAL AMERICA.
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED ON A HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE GUAJIRA
PENINSULA IS ENHANCING UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN
WESTERN VENEZUELA AND WITH ENHANCED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IN THE
CARIBBEAN BASINS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION
AND MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY THIS WILL TRIGGER MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM AND A RISK FOR MCS IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...EASTERN PANAMA AND WEST VENEZUELA. IN SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA/WEST PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. A
DECREASING TREND FOLLOWS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
NORTHWESTWARD SLOWLY...TO REACH THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY FRIDAY.
THE POSITION OF THE REGION OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A TROPICAL WAVE INTO CENTRAL AMERICA ON FRIDAY. GIVEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 65MM WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN EAST HONDURAS/NORTHEAST NICARAGUA ON
FRIDAY...WHILE IN NORTHWEST HONDURAS AND THE GULF OF FONSECA THIS
FAVORS MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12
TW 10N 45W 49W 52W 55W 58W 60W 63W 66W 68W
TW 21N 68W 72W 75W 78W 79W 83W 86W 90W 93W
TW 26N 106W 108W 110W 112W 114W EXITS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 45W AND SOUTH OF 10N. IT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO THE GUIANAS ON THURSDAY...TO FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN GUYANA
AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA...AQND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 68W AND SOUTH OF 21N. ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN HAITI AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN
WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA WITH A RISK FOR MCS
FORMATION. ON THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN JAMAICA AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN WEST CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. ON FRIDAY IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN EAST HONDURAS/NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND
SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION.
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 106W AND SOUTH OF 26N. ON WEDNESDAY
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SINALOA/SOUTHERN SONORA...WHILE
TRAILING MOISTURE FAVORS MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN JALISCO...NAYARIT
AND SOUTHERN SINALOA...TO THEN EXIT CONTINENTAL AREAS.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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