470
FXUS01 KWBC 261930
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2023
VALID 00Z THU JUL 27 2023 - 00Z SAT JUL 29 2023
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TODAY THEN THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
THURSDAY...
...HEAT WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT WAVE CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWEST...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA,
FAR SOUTHEAST OREGON AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA TODAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND UNSETTLED
WEATHER IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TODAY AND THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE, TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF LOWER
MICHIGAN, NORTHERN INDIANA, AND NORTHERN OHIO. SEVERE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY WHERE THE SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS,
A COUPLE TORNADOES, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE THE SPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABNORMALLY DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, SOUTHEAST OREGON, AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA IN THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPC.
LATER THIS WEEK, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL
WEAKEN WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM SINKS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, AND SHOWERS AND
STORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE MIDWEST.
DAILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST, AND A RECORD-SETTING HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
NATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND 100S ARE FORECAST
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND THURSDAY, AND
HEAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE NATION, BY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES IN
SOME LOCATIONS. IT IS IMPERATIVE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY AS TEMPS
RISE THIS WEEK.
DOLAN
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