539
FXCA20 KWBC 271814
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 27 JUL 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A TUTT CENTERS
OVER THE GULF LF MEXICO AND IS RETROGRADING TO CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL
VENTILATE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. EXPECT DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO GENERALLY PRODUCE
MAXIMA OF 15-35MM ON A DAILY BASIS. A TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVES INTO
SOUTHEAST MEXICO/GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE VALUES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...OVER 60MM. THIS WILL FAVOR MUCH LARGER
ACCUMULATIONS...FORECAST TO REACH MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN CHIAPAS
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM CENTRAL VERACRUZ INTO CAMPECHE. TO THE
WEST...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL ON A DAILY BASIS GIVEN WARM SST AND SEASONALLY HIGH
VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. EXPECT
MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE 15-35MM/DAY RANGE ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
A MOIST PLUME AND A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE TO TRIGGER MODERATE
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS
BETTER DEFINED IN CUBA AND AREAS SOUTH INTO PANAMA. STILL...THE
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY
WHEN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WEST CUBA...WHILE
ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE BAHAMAS. A FURTHER
DECREASE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON ANOTHER HAND...A TUTT LOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING
IT IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...AND ON SATURDAY
EVENING OVER CENTRAL CUBA. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE SOUTHEAST CUBA BY
SATURDAY TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BUT ALSO BY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS...FORECAST IN THE 25-35KT RANGE
BETWEEN 925 AND 850 HPA. THE BULK OF THE IMPACT WILL BE FROM
CENTRAL NICARAGUA INTO BELIZE AND GUATEMALA ON FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. YET...THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
GENERALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN BASINS DUE TO THE ACCELERATED TRADES
ARRIVING WITH THIS WAVE. SEE BELOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS.
SEASONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ON A
DAILY BASIS...TO PRODUCE THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ/NET...IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CONTINENT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS ON THE
DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION. YET...EXPECT AMOUNTS IN THE
05-15MM/DAY RANGE AND MAXIMA IN THE 20-45MM TANGE FROM GUIANA
THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12 31/00 31/12
TW 22N 32W 36W 40W 44W 48W 51W 55W 59W 62W
TW 10N 52W 55W 58W 61W 65W 69W 68W 71W 74W
TW 21N 75W 78W 79W 85W 88W 91W 93W 96W 99W
TW 26N 110W 112W 114W EXITS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT XXW AND SOUTH OF XXN. IT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH THE GUIANAS ON SATURDAY. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
NORTHERN GUIANA AND EAST VENEZUELA ON SATURDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 52W AND SOUTH OF 10N. IT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO THE GUIANAS ON THURSDAY...TO FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN GUYANA
AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ON SATURDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN VENEZUELA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 75W AND SOUTH OF 21N. ON
THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN JAMAICA AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
WEST CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. ON FRIDAY IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN EAST HONDURAS/NORTHEAST NICARAGUA WITH A RISK
FOR MCS FORMATION. IN NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS AND THE
GULF OF FONSECA REGION EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON SATURDAY IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-125MM AND A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION IN
GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND CHIAPAS. IN TABASCO/CAMPECHE/VERACRUZ
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...AND TRAILING MOISTURE IN HONDURAS AND
EL SALVADOR WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 110W AND SOUTH OF 26N...AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM CONTINENTAL REGIONS LIMITING ITS
EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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