454
FXUS01 KWBC 271956
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
355 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2023
VALID 00Z FRI JUL 28 2023 - 00Z SUN JUL 30 2023
...DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PLAINS, LASTING THROUGH WEEKEND...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...
...RECORD-BREAKING HEAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH END OF WEEK...
WIDESPREAD HEAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MILLIONS AS A DANGEROUS HEAT
WAVE MATERIALIZES OVER THE PLAINS AND EAST COAST DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY, EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, NORTHEAST, LOWER
GREAT LAKES, AND MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. WITHIN THESE AREAS,
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH AND EXCEED 95-100F
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND, BUT OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE THESE
TEMPERATURES FEEL MUCH HOTTER. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE SET TO
APPROACH 105-110F ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE HOT DAYTIME
HIGHS, NIGHTTIME LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL WARM NIGHTTIME LOW
RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE THEIR HEAT INDICES
DROP BELOW 80 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. RESIDENTS THAT ARE UNDER
HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS SHOULD PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY
THIS WEEK AS THIS HEAT WAVE WILL BE THE HOTTEST STRETCH OF SUMMER
SO FAR FOR MANY. HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE ORIENTATION OF
HEAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT; AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF HOT WEATHER
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THE CONTRARY, RELIEF IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT USHERS IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
THE REGION BY SUNDAY.
WHILE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE EXPERIENCING HOT WEATHER, OTHER
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE EXPERIENCING SEVERE WEATHER. IN THE
NORTHEAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FORCE AN AREA OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED
AN AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 2/5)
OVER THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR, NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ADDITIONALLY, ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION MAY SET THE STATE FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) ACROSS THIS REGION,
NOTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN RATES
OVER HIGHLY SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.
A SECOND AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
UPPER MIDWEST ALONG A COLD FRONT SEEPING THROUGH THE REGION. A
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON,
AND THESE TWO FEATURES WILL POSITIVELY INTERACT TO PRODUCE AN AREA
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MINNESOTA. THIS COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REGION, AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS VERY LARGE HAIL. OVER THE FOLLOWING DAYS,
DAYTIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF
FROM SUMMER HEAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LOW OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA IS PRODUCING AN
AREA HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. WPC ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN URBAN SENSITIVITY TO
FLASH FLOODING IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS UPPER-LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY, HELPING TO LESSEN THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT. OVER THE WEST, THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES, WITH
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE SET
TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM LOWS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, DAILY SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF
COMPLEX TERRAIN.
GENZ
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