806
FXCA20 KWBC 281207
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
806 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUL
28/12UTC: A TUTT LOW IS RETROGRADING WHILE CENTERING NEAR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS COINCIDING WITH A
RATHER DRY AIR MASS BETWEEN 900 AND 450 HPA. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 40MM OR SLIGHTLY BELOW.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PR AND THE
VI...AND SCATTERED SHALLOW TRADE WIND CUMULUS MOSTLY OVER WATER.
OF RELEVANCE...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 59W. THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF 16N
WITH THIS WAVE...WHICH WILL LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS ON
PRECIPITATION ONCE IT CROSSES PUERTO RICO. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED NEAR 38W. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NHC.
CURRENT NHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE ANY ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM RECURVING NORTHWARD WELL TO THE EAST
OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ITS EFFECTS ON
PRECIPITATION IN PUERTO RICO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE NORMALS FOR LATE JULY. SOME ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE
ISLAND. THIS WILL STIMULATE PRIMARILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN
NORTHWEST PR WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA NEAR/SLIGHTLY OVER 1.5 INCHES.
MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND THE EL YUNQUE STREAMER WILL ALSO BE
ENHANCED TO A LESSER EXTENT...TO FAVOR MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE
0.3-0.5 IN RANGE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT AFTERNOON TO CLUSTER IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
ON A DAILY BASIS...INCLUDING ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
MAXIMA NEAR 1 INCH ON FRIDAY GIVEN SOME ENHANCEMENT BY THE TUTT.
ON SATURDAY EXPECT A PEAK IN AMOUNTS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECT MAXIMA IN THE 0.4-0.6 INCH RANGE. ON
TUESDAY...THE PREVALENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL FAVOR
AN EXTENSION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5
INCHES.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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