998
FXUS01 KWBC 300740
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2023
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 30 2023 - 12Z TUE AUG 01 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN
PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. ALONG THE
WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN
INCREASED THREAT OF HAIL TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER THE REGION.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MOREOVER, ON SUNDAY, TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A NEARBY FRONT WILL AID
IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
ON MONDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID
RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
IN THE MEANTIME, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CREATING
CONDITIONS THAT WILL BRING HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HOT LOW
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS NOT COOLING OFF
OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND
HEAT ADVISORIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO
THE SOUTHEAST. IN ADDITION, A HEAT WAVE WILL ALSO BUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
ZIEGENFELDER
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