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FXCA20 KWBC 311241
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JUL
31/12UTC: A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN MOISTURE. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS FOR THE MOST PART THIS WEEK.
THERE IS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 24N 54W THAT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TO THE NNW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND LEAVE AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN TERMS OF
SAHARAN DUST...THE LATEST GEOS GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY OCCASIONAL
AND SMALL AMOUNTS OF SAHARAN DUST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK.
THE TJUA RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
PR/USVI...AND THE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE
MORNING...AS A NARROW SLOT OF DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
BEFORE THE MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT.
THIS IS WHY THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO DIP TO AROUND
1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE RAPIDLY TO AROUND 2.3
INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT. THAT SAID...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PR. IN GENERAL...THE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER AN INCH OF
RAIN...BUT ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THAT IS EXPECTED...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MOVE IN AND AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS INDICATING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE
TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE EGDI ALGORITHM SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI
AND PR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED NEAR 30W...AND IT COULD REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND DURATION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN
TONIGHT.
OVERALL...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PR IS FORECAST EACH
DAY OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. EASTERN PR AND THE USVI IS FORECAST TO
OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WETTEST PERIOD...WITH AROUND
1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST OVER WEST NORTHWEST PR DURING
THAT PERIOD. AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR EASTERN
PR AND THE USVI FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING PERIOD AS
WELL. WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE DRIEST DAY IN THE 5 DAY
PERIOD...BUT SOME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
STILL POSSIBLE. THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST IS FOR WESTERN
PR TO RECEIVE AROUND 2.25 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE EASTERN PR AND
THE USVI IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN.
ALAMO/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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