314
FXCA20 KWBC 011245
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
845 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG
01/12UTC: A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS PASSING OVER HISPANIOLA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST...BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PR/USVI TODAY. IN ADDITION...ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
DRY SLOT THAT COULD MOVE IN ON FRIDAY. THIS DRY SLOT WILL BE BRIEF
AS ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...BUT
THE LOCAL WINDS WILL BE WEAK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK AS
A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WEAKENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...CAUSING GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT
VARIABLE AT TIMES. THERE IS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N 54W
THAT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NNW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS GENERAL
PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE GENERAL
AREA...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR.
THE TJUA RADAR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY INDICATING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PR. THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE MOVING IN AND
CONVECTION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR. THE
LOCAL WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHES. THE WEAK WINDS WILL ALLOW THE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE...SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PR. ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN...THIS
WILL CAUSE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO OCCUR OVER SW PR...WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN OR CENTRAL PR IS
FORECAST EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. EASTERN PR AND THE USVI IS
FORECAST TO OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST IS FOR THE
WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR TO RECEIVE JUST UNDER 3 INCHES OF
RAIN...WHILE EASTERN PR IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN. THE USVI IS FORECAST TO HAVE AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page