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FXCA20 KWBC 011851
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 01 AUG 2023 AT 1730 UTC: AS HURRICANE DORA
MEANDERS AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST MEXICO...ENHANCED AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL FAVOR MODERATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY TO FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM FROM NORTH NAYARIT INTO SOUTHWEST CHIHUAHUA. THIS
DECREASES THEREAFTER...YET EXPECT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE ON A DAILY BASIS ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.
ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO...ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY ORGANIZE WITH
TROPICAL WAVES (SEE BELOW). THE MOST REMARKABLE IS A WAVE
CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH ASSOCIATES WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 60MM. THIS WILL FAVOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHEAST MEXICO ON TUESDAY...SHIFTING TO VERACRUZ/OAXACA ON
WEDNESDAY AND GUERRERO ON THURSDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE USA IS UNDULATING A
SURFACE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH THE
THERMAL GRADIENT IS WEAK...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY...TO THEN LOSE DEFINITION
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 15MM/DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXPECT A FEW ILL-DEFINED MOIST PLUMES MOVING IN
IN THE EASTERLY TRADES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...HOWEVER...THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD/NEAR THE
BAHAMAS...WILL START INTERACTING WITH DIURNAL HEATING IN SOUTHEAST
CUBA AND ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HISPANIOLA TO FAVOR ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL START DESTABILIZING JAMAICA
AND THE HAITIAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...WHEN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. IN PUERTO RICO...EXPECT A PEAK IN PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY...WHEN DIURNAL BREEZES WILL PLAY A ROLE ENHANCING
CONVECTION. THIS WILL FAVOR GENERALLY 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM PEAKING IN NORTHWEST PR.
A MOIST PLUME IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA. DEVELOPING CONVECTION
IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE DIVERGENT TIER IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN UPPER RIDGE. INITIALLY HOWEVER...A TUTT LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING TO CONVECTION DEVELOPING
IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN
THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION/EL SALVADOR WITH A RISK FOR MCS
FORMATION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN SOUTHEAST MEXICO/NORTHERN
GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ELSEWHERE FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWARD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. AS THE MOIST PLUME
CROSSES...EXPECT ACTIVE CONVECTION INTO WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY...TO PRODUCE AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 15-30MM/DAY RANGE.
ON THURSDAY EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASE AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN
FROM THE CARIBBEAN. STILL...EXPECT DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO PRODUCE
MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 15-25MM FROM NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD...AND
MAXIMA OVER 20-35MM FROM WEST HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR INTO MEXICO.
SEASONABLY QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...GIVEN A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN CONTRAST TO
PREVIOUS WEEKS. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MODERATE AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PRODUCE MAXIMA OF IN THE 15-35MM
RANGE FROM SURINAME/GUYANA INTO NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN
COLOMBIA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12
TW 18N 42W 45W 49W 52W 59W 60W 63W 67W 71W
TW 20N 74W 77W 81W 84W 87W 90W 93W 96W 98W
TW 22N 87W 91W 94W 95W 98W 100W 103W 105W 107W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 42W AND SOUTH OF 18N. IT WILL
ENTER THE GUIANAS ON WEDNESDAY TO FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IN NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EASTERN VENEZUELA AND WESTERN
GUYANA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 74W AND SOUTH OF 20N. ON TUESDAY
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN PANAMA AND NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN SOUTHEAST CUBA AND IN JAMAICA.
ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN HONDURAS/NORTH
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM OVER WEST GUATEMALA...CHIAPAS...NORTH
OAXACA...SOUTH VERACRUZ...TABASCO..AND WESTERN CAMPECHE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 87W AND SOUTH OF 22N. ON TUESDAY
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN CHIAPAS/TABASCO/CAMPECHE/NORTH
GUATEMALA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN
CHIAPAS. ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN OAXACA
AND GUERRERO. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
IN SOUTHERN MICHOACAN AND WESTERN GUERRERO...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
IN CENTRAL MEXICO.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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