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FXCA20 KWBC 021248
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
847 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG
02/12UTC: FOR TODAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS CAUSING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...DUE TO THE LINGERING
MOISTURE COMBINING WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO WESTERN INTERIOR
OF PR IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD
DUE TO LIGHT NORTHERLY 700MB WINDS. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR TO NEAR THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN
RANGE...WHILE THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN...INTERIOR...TO
THE SOUTHERN MUNICIPALITIES GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY...WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS
FROM NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN
PR...WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHWESTERN PR. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL STILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...THE LOCAL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE PICKED UP BY FRIDAY...AND A MORE TYPICAL RAINFALL
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEING THAT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR IN THE
MORNING...THEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN PR.
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH RAINFALL BEING FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF THE INTERIOR SECTORS OF PR AND EVEN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MUNICIPALITIES. THAT SAID...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL OR WESTERN PR IS FORECAST EACH DAY
THROUGH THE 5-DAY PERIOD. EASTERN PR AND THE USVI IS FORECAST TO
OBSERVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST IS FOR THE INTERIOR TO
WESTERN PR TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PR IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE JUST OVER 3.5
INCHES. THE USVI IS FORECAST TO HAVE AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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