058
FXCA20 KWBC 021827
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 02 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A TUTT CENTERS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXTENDS AN AXIT INTO ANOTHER TUTT
LOW OVER SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. THE SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO RETROGRADE
WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THEIR SOUTH. TROPICAL ARE
ALSO PLAYING AN IMPORTANT ROLE MODULATING CONVECTION (SEE BELOW).
ON WEDNESDAY...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM
SOUTHWEST GUATEMALA INTO OAXACA AS A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH
THE TUTT...TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM INCLUDING A RISK FOR MCS
FORMATION. IN THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...EXPECT STILL MODERATE
AMOUNTS FROM NORTHERN SINALOA INTO CENTRAL SONORA...FORECAST TO
REACH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON THURSDAY...THE MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED
IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN GENERAL.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN NAYARIT/JALISCO DUE TO PRECIPITABLE
WATER EXCEEDING 55MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT ENHANCEMENT BY A TUTT LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO OAXACA AND SOUTHERN PUEBLA...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. WEST FROM COLIMA INTO SOUTHERN
SINALOA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE.
TO THE EAST...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTH ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL CUBA ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO EXTENDS ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS INTO SOUTHEAST CUBA BY THURSDAY EVENING...TO THEN START
LOSING DEFINITION. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT ONLY ENHANCE CONVECTION IN
ELEVATED TERRAIN IN SOUTHEAST CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...BUT IS ALSO
SUSTAINING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
WHERE IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY TO START DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN TERMS OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IN CUBA
AND HISPANIOLA...ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
SOUTHEAST CUBA. IN HISPANIOLA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ON
THURSDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN BOTH REGIONS. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN HISPANIOLA.
ALSO IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...A MOIST PLUME OF 50+MM OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE VI AND PUERTO RICO WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK TRADES ALLOW FOR A
STRONG INFLUENCE OF DIURNAL BREEZES. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM WITH A TROUGH IN THE TRADES. A
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
A SEASONABLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS PRESENT IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ALTHOUGH WAVES AND THE ITCZ
ARE PLAYING A ROLE IN MODULATING PRECIPITATION...AVAILABLE
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS WEEKS. ISOLATED
MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AREAS
WITH MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO A TROPICAL
WAVE...WHILE MORE CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MAXIMA
IN SOUTH AMERICA TO 20-35MM. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MAGDALENA BAJO DUE TO ENHANCED DIURNAL BREEZES. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN COLOMBIA...AS A TROUGH CURRENTLY
CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES INTERACTS WITH OROGRAPHY. THIS WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12
TW 21N 32W 36W 40W 44W 48W 53W 57W 62W 66W
TW 19N 49W 52W 59W 60W 63W 67W 71W 74W 77W
TW 19N 81W 84W 87W 90W 92W 94W 97W 100W 103W
TW 22N 94W 95W 98W 100W 103W 105W 107W 109W 110W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 32W AND SOUTH OF 21N. IT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
CYCLE...TO ENTER THE LESSER ANTILLES POTENTIALLY ON SATURDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 49W AND SOUTH OF 19N. THIS WAVE
ASSOCIATES WITH UNUSUALLY LOW VALUES OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15025MM IN THE GUIANAS. ON
THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN GUYANA AND EASTERN
VENEZUELA...AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR GENERALIZED VALUES OF 15-35MM IN
VENEZUELA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 81W AND SOUTH OF 19N. ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM FROM WEST PANAMA/COSTA
RICA INTO HONDURAS. ON THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN
NORTH AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND TABASCO/CAMPECHE/CHIAPAS
IN MEXICO. IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN CHIAPAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
CHIAPAS/TABASCO/SOUTH VERACRUZ/OAXACA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 94W AND SOUTH OF 22N...AND
ASSOCIATES WITH LARGE VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.
ACCORDINGLY...IT WILL FAVOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AS IT PROPAGATES
WESTWARD. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM SOUTHWEST
GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS INTO OAXACA AND CENTRAL VERACRUZ. ON THURSDAY IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM OAXACA/PUEBLA WEST INTO COLIMA
AND MICHOACAN. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAZIMA OF 25-50MM
IN NAYARIT/JALISCO/COLIMA AND PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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