583
FXCA20 KWBC 031240
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG
03/12UTC: OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MOISTURE WILL FLUCTUATE
WITH BRIEF PATCHES OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ALSO DRY SLOTS. ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL PEAK AT
AROUND 2.4 INCHES THIS EVENING...FRIDAY EVENING...AND SUNDAY
EVENING. WHILE THE DRY AIR WILL CAUSE PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.7
INCHES THIS MORNING...FRIDAY MORNING...AND SATURDAY MORNING. FOR
TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA...CAUSING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING...BUT GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO EASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ION THE MORNING...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE USVI AS WELL AS
NORTH AND EASTERN PR. IN THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WHICH IS
THE REASON FOR THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY FRIDAY EVENING AGAIN.
HOWEVER...THE LOCAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE PICKED UP A BIT
MORE BY FRIDAY...AND THEREFORE THE RAINFALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY TYPICAL...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER A HALF AN INCH
ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN PR...AND OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN PR DUE TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE USVI IS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE UNDER 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AS THE
RAINFALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY OF BRIEF SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THAT SAID...THIS PATTERN OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR...THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NW-PR IS EXPECTED TO
BE REPEATED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH WITH A BIT LESS
ACCUMULATION OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS BECAUSE IF THE
GEOS GUIDANCE WERE TO VERIFY...THERE COULD BE SOME SAHARAN DUST
STARTING TO FILTER IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR TO
RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 AND 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PR IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE JUST OVER 3 INCHES. THE
USVI IS FORECAST TO HAVE AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN OVER THE
5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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