798
FXCA20 KWBC 031805
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
204 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 03 AUG 2023 AT 1800 UTC: IN MEXICO...THE
UPPER FLOW IS CHARACTERIZED BY RETROGRADING UPPER LOWS GIVEN THE
TENDENCY FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTH TEXAS/LOUISIANA THROUGH THE CYCLE. THE UPPER
LOWS/TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO DIURNAL
CONVECTION...WHICH IS FORECAST TO RECUR ON A DAILY BASIS IN AREAS
SOUTH OF 24N AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND COASTAL
PLAIN. GIVEN ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER TO THE
SOUTH OF 25N...EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE CYCLE ESPECIALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL WAVES.
ON THURSDAY...THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM...WHILE NORTH INTO SINALOA AND THE EJE VOLCANICO
TRANSVERSAL EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. A ROBUST
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
35-70MM FROM BELIZE/NORTHERN GUATEMALA INTO CHIAPAS AND TABASCO.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST FROM COLIMA INTO SINALOA...WHERE
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH MAXIMA OF 35-70MM WITH A RISK FOR
MCS FORMATION. BETWEEN CAMPECHE/TABASCO AND NORTHERN OAXACA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WEST AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
SONORA...SINALOA...NAYARIT...JALISCO AND COLIMA.
A SURFACE FRONT IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHERE
IT WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON
THURSDAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT. THIS DECREASES AFTER.
TO THE EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA INTO
SOUTHEAST CUBA AND JAMAICA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HOLD
THROUGH FRIDAY...TO THEN WEAKEN. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A
DISORGANIZED TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE ARC OF THE ANTILLES
ON THURSDAY...TO RAPIDLY PROPAGATE INTO JAMAICA/SOUTHEAST CUBA BY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AREAS OF ENHANCED AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE NOT
NECESSARILY ORGANIZING WITH THIS WAVE. UNDER THIS DISORGANIZED
PATTERN...EXPECT CONVECTION TO VARY MOSTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DIURNAL CYCLES. ON THURSDAY...THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN EAST CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHILE IN
JAMAICA AND THE HAITIAN PENINSULA...AND PUERTO RICO EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN HISPANIOLA AND
A DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SOUTHEAST CUBA AND JAMAICA...AS
THE UPPER TROUGH FILLS IN. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHEAST CUBA...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND
JAMAICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ANOTHER WEAK AND RAPIDLY
PROPAGATING WAVE ENTERS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TO FAVOR ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON SATURDAY.
A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA AS A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY IN NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA/BELIZE AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN EL SALVADOR/SOUTH GUATEMALA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM IN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE CYCLE. STILL...EXPECT
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS IN DIURNAL CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ/NET FROM NORTHERN GUYANA INTO NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...TO FAVOR MAXIMA IN THE 15-35MM RANGE. THE LARGEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...WHERE A
TROUGH IN THE TRADES STIMULATES MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FAVORING
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12
TW 21N 40W 44W 48W 54W 58W 63W 67W 71W 74W
TW 19N 59W 60W 64W 69W 71W 78W 82W 85W 88W
TW 25N 87W 90W 92W 94W 97W 100W 103W 107W 110W
TW 25N 98W 100W 103W 105W 107W 109W 111W 113W 115W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 40W AND SOUTH OF 21N. IT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
TRACE AMOUNTS FORECAST OVER FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. ON
SATURDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 59W AND SOUTH OF 19N. ON
THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM OVER WEST
VENEZUELA/GUYANA...AND MAXIMA OF 15MM OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM OVER
HISPANIOLA...MAXIMA OF 20-35MM OVER NORTH VENEZUELA AND SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SOUTH VENEZUELA AND CENTRAL
COLOMBIA. ON SATURDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA/PANAMA AND EXTREME EAST CUBA...AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN CENTRAL CUBA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 87W AND SOUTH OF 25N. ON
FRIDAY...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GUATEMALA/BELIZE/CAMPECHE ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
IN NORTHERN YUCATAN AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN PORTIONS OF
OAXACA/CHIAPAS/TABASCO/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL
MEXICO IS FORECAST A MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 98W AND SOUTH OF 25N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN AND JALISCO AS WELL AS IN COLIMA. ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND CENTRAL MEXICO MAXIMA OF
25-50MM ARE EXPECTED. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
35-70MM IN SOUTHERN SINALOA/NAYARIT/WEST JALISCO WITH A RISK OF
MCS FORMATION. ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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