530
FXUS01 KWBC 031954
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
353 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2023
VALID 00Z FRI AUG 04 2023 - 00Z SUN AUG 06 2023
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL PLAINS, MID-SOUTH, AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO REMAIN STORMY IN PORTIONS OF THE
NATION'S HEARTLAND AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES TO STICK AROUND IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST...
A STORMY END TO THE WORK-WEEK AND START TO THE WEEKEND IS ON TAP
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO
THE EAST COAST. THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE ALOFT TO WORK WITH AND SOME STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS A PAIR OF SLIGHT RISKS FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL; ONE STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN UTAH AND EASTERN
IDAHO INTO THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND ANOTHER IN THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. FLOOD WATCHES ARE ALSO IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF
THESE REGIONS AS WELL. THE CENTRAL PLAINS FEATURES THE BEST ODDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK (THREAT LEVEL 3/5) FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS, NORTHEAST
COLORADO, AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THERE IS ALSO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER THE MID-SOUTH THAT IS SET TO PRODUCE MORE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
IN PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ELSEWHERE, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
ONTARIO HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL
2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. WPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/4) IN PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
AS WELL AS IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBANIZED COMMUNITIES.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BOTH LOOK PARTICULARLY BUSY THANKS TO A PAIR
OF STORM SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE ACTING TO REINFORCE A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
WPC HAS JUST ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (THREAT LEVEL 3/4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY THAT INCLUDES PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA, SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA, AND FAR
NORTHEAST WYOMING. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, SO THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK FROM NORTHERN PA TO SOUTHERN VERMONT. BY SATURDAY, THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHIFTS EAST TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM THE
BLACK HILLS ON EAST TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE NATION'S HEARTLAND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THANKS TO LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND IN FLORIDA
WHERE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT AIR-MASSES WILL ENTRENCH
THEMSELVES ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH (COOLER) AND SOUTH (HOTTER).
EXCESSIVE AND EVEN DANGEROUS HEAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT
AS HIGH AS 115 DEGREES IN SOME CASES. DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE COMMON EACH DAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ROUTINELY SURPASSING THE CENTURY MARK. EXPECT
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES THAT STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW 80 FROM TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, WHICH WILL ALSO BREAK RECORD WARM
MINIMUMS AND PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. THE
HEAT DOME EXPANDS MORE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.
FARTHER NORTH, TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SEPTEMBER IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS TOMORROW AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL ENOUGH THAT SOME DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP 70 DEGREES IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
MULLINAX
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