644
FXUS01 KWBC 040837
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
437 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2023
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 04 2023 - 12Z SUN AUG 06 2023
...PERSISTENT HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND...
...ELEVATED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY, EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA FOR SATURDAY...
...STORMY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...
A LONG-LIVED RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN ITS POSITION FROM PORTIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
BENEATH IT AND ENSURE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE SOUTH. ANOTHER DAY OF POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST TODAY FROM PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO INTO
TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
ARE IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS
NORTHERN TEXAS, CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO
EXCEED 110 DEGREES DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR THESE SAME LOCATIONS BUT A
RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT TO KANSAS, MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA FOR SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK FROM MONTANA AND WYOMING
TOWARD THE EAST TODAY. ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HIGH RAINFALL RATES,
LEADING TO AN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE
EXPECTED WHERE A MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
SHIFT EAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WELL, IN THE VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND WITH ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS IN PLACE FROM THE NATION'S
HEARTLAND INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION.
OTTO
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