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FXCA20 KWBC 041240
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG
04/12UTC: OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
FLUCTUATE AS TROPICAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN...WITH VALUES
FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1.7 TO 2.3 INCHES ACROSS THE PR/USVI AREA. A
DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER WOULD BE
NEAR 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES OR SO...BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN UP TO
2.4 INCHES OR SO ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE RACES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE THEREAFTER IS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OVER THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...AFFECTING THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN PR IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY...SATURDAY
BEING THE DAY WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN PR.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS SUPPORTED BY THE EGDI
ALGORITHM...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVES.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED PATTERN...OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE EASTERN PR COULD
OBSERVE OVER A HALF AN INCH BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN TODAY
AS MOISTURE DECREASES. THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ON SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...AND THE LOCAL WINDS WILL
INCREASE. THIS MEANS THAT WIDELY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED...POSSIBLY CAUSING PERSISTENT ADVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI BUT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...THE AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST TO BE LIMITED TO A SMALL PORTION OF W/NW PR. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CAUSING
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST IS FOR PORTIONS OF W/NW PR TO
RECEIVE BETWEEN JUST OVER 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PR IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE BETWEEN 3 AND 3.5 INCHES.
THE USVI IS FORECAST TO HAVE AROUND 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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