491
FXCA20 KWBC 041839
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
238 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 04 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: IN
MEXICO...ACTIVITY IS ORGANIZING WITH PROGRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVES.
THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL
VERACRUZ INTO SOUTHERN SINALOA THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT
A DECREASING TREND IN ACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM FROM JALISCO INTO SOUTHERN
NAYARIT WITH A RISK OF MCS FORMATION...WHILE IN NORTHERN OAXACA
EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON SATURDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
BETWEEN PUEBLA/OAXACA AND MICHOACAN/GUANAJUATO...WHERE EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST IN JALISCO/COLIMA/NAYARIT WHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL REACH
MAXIMA OF 25-40MM. OTHERWISE... DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.
TROPICAL WAVES ARE CROSSING THE CARIBBEAN AND ARE LOSING THEIR
CONNECTION WITH THE ITCZ...AS THEY ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED IN
LATITUDES BETWEEN 13 AND 23N. HOWEVER...MOIST PLUMES ARE NOT
NECESSARILY ORGANIZING WITH THE WAVES...THUS THEIR ENHANCEMENT
WILL BE MARGINAL. IN TERMS OF THE MOST REMARKABLE
ACCUMULATIONS...ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN HISPANIOLA
AS A TROUGH IN THE TRADES AND THEN A TROPICAL WAVE ENHANCE DIURNAL
ACTIVITY. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHEAST CUBA
AND IN HISPANIOLA. ON SUNDAY...A MOIST PLUME INTERACTING WITH THE
LESSER ANTILLES WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROM SAINT LUCIA INTO
DOMINICA. OTHERWISE...AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA
GENERALLY UNDER 25MM.
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL AMERICA GIVEN
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL
PREVAIL PARTICULARLY IN BOCAS DEL TORO AND IN PROTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA DUE TO ENHANCED TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE. AN INCREASING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY IN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AS A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED
WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ARRIVES. THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN THE DARIEN/NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND
CENTRAL PANAMA ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA ON SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO FLARE UP WITH THE
ITCZ/NET LOCATED FROM NORTHEAST VENEZELA INTO NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA...AND WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN WEST VENEZUELA/EASTERN
COLOMBIA ON FRIDAY...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
SATURDAY...ENHANCED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN WEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WHILE IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WILL LIMIT
TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...WHERE EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. IN WESTERN
COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ISOLATED
MAXIMA UNDER 25MM PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
EASTERN COLOMBIA. A SEASONALLY QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE
GUIANAS ON A DAILY BASIS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12
TW 23N 48W 54W 58W 63W 67W 71W 74W 78W 82W
TW 20N 64W 69W 74W 78W 80W 82W 85W 88W 91W
TW 25N 92W 94W 97W 99W 103W 106W 110W 112W 114W
TW 25N 103W 105W 107W 109W 111W 113W 115W EXIT
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 48W AND SOUTH OF 23N. THE WAVE
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE THLANTIC THROUGH
FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF PR AND EASTERN
DOMINCAN REPUBLIC.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 64W AND SOUTH OF 20N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM OVER
HISPANIOLA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. ON
SATURDAY...IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA/PANAMA. IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EASTERN CUBA
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN CENTRAL CUBA. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN COSTA RICA/PANAMA...AND MAXIMA OF 15MM
IN SOUTHWESTERN CUBA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 92W AND SOUTH OF 25N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN PORTIONS OF
OAXACA/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/PUEBLA AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
CHIAPAS/TABASCO. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL MEXICO IS FORECAST A MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR 25-40MM IN
JALISCO/COLIMA/MICHOACAN AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SOUTHERN SINALOA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 103W AND SOUTH OF 25N.
ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN SOUTHERN
SINALOA/NAYARIT/WEST JALISCO WITH A RISK OF MCS FORMATION. ON
SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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