149
FXCA20 KWBC 071849
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EDT MON AUG 07 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 07 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A SERIES OF
TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SOME OF THESE TROPICAL WAVES HAVE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AND AT TIMES WOULD INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS TO CAUSE AN ENHANCED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.
AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DOES NOT EXPECT
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES IN OUR DOMAIN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM EUGENE IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
24.5N AND 118.8W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AS
IT WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WEST
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 90W...WEST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. AS FAR
AS RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA...AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE INFLUENCE IT WILL HAVE IN
THE DIFFERENT LOCAL AREAS DUE TO WIND FLOW...INTERACTION WITH THE
LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY AND WITH THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE
SOME AREAS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY AS SUGGESTED BY THE EGDI
ALGORITHM. PERIODS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY SIGNAL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH PULSES OF HIGH EGDI SIGNATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY AND VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO
UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND TROUGHS THAT WILL CAUSE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORKWEEK.
OVERALL...A RATHER ACTIVE START TO THE WEEK IS EXPECTED OVER THE
TROPICS. ALTHOUGH NO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS ANTICIPATED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...MANY AREAS OF THE
CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...MEXICO AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
ONLY AREAS THAT LOOK DRY ARE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
BRAZIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE MAY
CAUSE SOME RAINFALL ACROSS ISOLATED SECTORS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12
TW 16N 45W 49W 52W 56W 59W 61W 64W 67W 70W
TW 20N 55W 58W 61W 65W 68W 69W 71W 74W 77W
TW 20N 72W 75W 77W 79W 82W 85W 89W 93W 96W
TW 18N 84W 89W 92W 95W 98W 102W 105W 108W 111W
TW 20N 105W 108W 111W 114W EXIT
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 45W AND SOUTH OF 16N. ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WEST SURINAME AND
GUYANA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN COULD CAUSE MAXIMA OF
15-30MM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRAZIL AND UP TO 45MM ACROSS
EASTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN GUYANA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 55W AND SOUTH OF 20N WILL ENTER
THE CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY...CAUSING RAINFALL MAXIMAS UP TO 35MM
OVER THE LEEWARDS AND PUERTO RICO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
TUTT MAY INTERACT WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...CAUSING HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP TO 50MM ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 72W AND SOUTH OF 20N IS CAUSING
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. AREAS IN CUBA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL HAVE RAINFALL
MAXIMAS THAT COULD BE BETWEEN 20-35MM TODAY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAINFALL TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND
COSTA RICA...WITH RAINFALL UP TO 35MM ACROSS COSTA RICA BUT LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 84W AND SOUTH OF 18N WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
ACROSS THOSE AREAS...MAINLY WITH DAILY MAXIMAS OF 35MM OR LESS
UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS
PARTICULARLY WET FOR SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND NEARBY AREAS IN
MEXICO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL
CAUSE UP TO 60MM OF RAIN ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 105W AND SOUTH OF 20N...AND WILL
HAVE LIMITED TO NO EFFECT ON CONTINENTAL CONVECTION AS IT EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA.
ALAMO/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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