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FXCA20 KWBC 081240
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
839 AM EDT TUE AUG 08 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG
08/12UTC: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH FRIDAY MAY BE THE
DRIEST DAY WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND SAHARAN DUST APPROACHING
THE AREA. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IS STILL FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING BETWEEN
2 AND 2.4 INCHES. THETA-E AT THE 850MB LEVEL IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING IN...ONE FROM TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...THEN
ANOTHER ONE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS...BUT THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE...AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE MAY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES EARLY ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION AND SOME SAHARAN DUST WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING DRY AIR
OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER THERE
IS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH A TUTT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM
THE EAST AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY SUNDAY.
THE RAINFALL PATTERN THIS WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY TYPICAL... WITH
MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...WHILE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR. THE AMOUNTS
OF RAIN AND COVERAGE WILL VARY WITH THE FLUCTUATIONS IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AS THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH. AS A TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES TODAY AND MOISTURE INCREASES...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN
METRO. UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FORECAST. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND A
SIGNIFICANT WIND INCREASE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS. ALSO...THERE IS SOME SAHARAN DUST THAT COULD MOVE IN ON
FRIDAY AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW
SUGGESTING A TUTT TO MOVE IN IN THE WEEKEND FROM THE EAST...THEN
PASSING SOUTH OF PR/USVI.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST IS FOR PORTIONS OF W/NW PR TO
RECEIVE OVER 5.5 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PR IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE AROUND 3 INCHES. THE USVI ARE FORECAST
TO HAVE AROUND 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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