016
FXCA20 KWBC 081937
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EDT TUE AUG 08 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 08 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: SEVERAL TROPICAL
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTING THE TROPICAL REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME OF THESE TROPICAL WAVES HAVE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THEM THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
TO CAUSE AN ENHANCED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN. THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE US. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 7N AND 96W. AS FAR AS
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...MOST
OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE RELATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES AND THE INFLUENCE IT WILL HAVE IN THE DIFFERENT
LOCAL AREAS DUE TO WIND FLOW...THE INTERACTION WITH LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY AND WITH THE MID AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO PLAY A
ROLE. MANY OF THESE AREAS HAVE A HIGH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS
SUGGESTED BY THE EGDI ALGORITHM. ENHANCED INSTABILITY THAT COULD
CAUSE SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH PULSES
OF HIGH EGDI SIGNATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO UPPER LEVEL LOWS AND TROUGHS THAT WILL
CAUSE ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION. ALTHOUGH NO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IS ANTICIPATED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...MANY AREAS OF
THE CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...MEXICO AND NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE THEIR FAIR SHARE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE ONLY AREA THAT LOOKS DRY IS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN BRAZIL...AND THAT IS TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BECAUSE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ON THE NEXT 2 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS TROPICAL WAVES
MOVING THROUGH MAY CAUSE SOME RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12
TW 17N 53W 56W 59W 61W 64W 67W 70W 73W 76W
TW 23N 64W 66W 68W 69W 71W 74W 77W 80W 83W
TW 19N 81W 84W 87W 90W 93W 95W 98W 101W 104W
TW 18N 92W 95W 98W 102W 105W 108W 111W EXIT
TW 20N 113W EXIT
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 53W AND SOUTH OF 17N. TODAY...IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WEST SURINAME AND GUYANA INTO
WEDNESDAY...THEN COULD CAUSE MAXIMA OF 15-30MM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN BRAZIL AND UP TO 60MM ACROSS EASTERN VENEZUELA ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CAUSE MAX RAINFALL OF 20-35MM ACROSS CENTRAL TO
WESTERN VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 64W AND SOUTH OF 23N WILL ENTER
THE CARIBBEAN TODAY...CAUSING RAINFALL MAXIMAS UP TO 40MM OVER
PUERTO RICO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A TUTT MAY INTERACT WITH
THIS TROPICAL WAVE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...CAUSING HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...UP TO 60MM ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AS THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...RAINFALL MAXIMA UP TO 60MM CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 81W AND SOUTH OF 19N IS CAUSING
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. AREAS IN CUBA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL HAVE RAINFALL
MAXIMAS THAT COULD BE BETWEEN 15-20MM TODAY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE RAINFALL TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA...WITH RAINFALL UP TO 25MM
ACROSS COSTA RICA BUT LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL HAVE UP TO 80MM WITH A RISK OF MCS
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 92W AND SOUTH OF 18N WILL
CONTINUE MOVING WEST AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
ACROSS THOSE AREAS...MAINLY WITH DAILY MAXIMAS OF 35MM OR LESS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LOOKS
PARTICULARLY WET FOR SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND NEARBY AREAS IN
MEXICO AS THE TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL
CAUSE UP TO 60MM OF RAIN ACROSS THOSE AREAS. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES MOVING WEST...THE AREA WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOVE
NORTHWARD...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL...EXPECTING UP TO 50MM.
ALAMO/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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