704
FXCA20 KWBC 091822
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT WED AUG 09 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 09 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: THE TROPICAL WAVES
ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN STORY. THE INCREASES IN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPCIAL WAVES...WHICH WILL
OCCASIONALLY COMBINE WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...WILL
CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY SECTORS IN THE REGION. THERE IS
SOME SAHARAN DUST THAT COULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS
WEEKEND...CAUSING A REDUCTION IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LEEWARDS AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...YET SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
STILL EXPECTED.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN ATLANTIC...CAUSING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HAVE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THERE IS A SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF COSTA RICA IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE IS A WAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AS WELL AS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IN THE MID LEVELS. A MID LEVEL LOW IS PRESENT NEAR 9N AND 103W.
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE OCCASIONALLY COMBINING WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES TO CAUSE AN ENHANCED RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
EVEN MCS IN SOME AREAS. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A TUTT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...ENTERING THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT...CAUSING MUCH INSTABILITY THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING
EAST. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND WILL
INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH...CAUSING POOLING
OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND
CAUSING THE POTENTIAL OF MCS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OF RELEVANCE...A TUTT CENTERS OVER NORTHEAST HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE INTO SOUTH/CENTRAL MEXICO BY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY...LIMITED MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL GENERALLY
LMITE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN WEST HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA ON
WENDESDAY. ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER...THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
40-80MM FROM SOUTHERN VERACRUZ INTO WEST GUATEMALA/CAMPECHE...WITH
A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AFTER...BUT STILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12
TW 18N 61W 64W 67W 70W 74W 78W 82W 85W 88W
TW 21N 69W 72W 74W 76W 79W 82W 84W 86W 88W
TW 19N 90W 93W 96W 100W 102W 105W 107W 109W 111W
TW 17N 98W 101W 104W 108W 110W 113W 116W EXIT
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 61W AND SOUTH OF 18N. IT IS
MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...AS IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS IMPLIES ALSO THE
RISK FOR SQUALLY CONVECTION PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN EAST VENEZUELA AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES. IN PUERTO RICO/VI IT WILL GENERALLY FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN PUERTO
RICO/VI AND THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN SQUALLY CONVECTION.
IN HAITI/WEST DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
IN VENEZUELA/EASTERN COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY
IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN WESTERN AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA.
IN CENTRAL AND EAST CUBA IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN JAMAICA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 69W AND SOUTH OF 21N. IT IS
BETTER DEFINED IN THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW
DOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TUTT LOW WHEN REACHING THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
IN HISPANIOLA. ON THURSDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
SOUTHEAST CUBA AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN JAMAICA. ON FRIDAY...IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN CENTRAL CUBA AND 15-25MM IN WEST
CUBA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 90W AND SOUTH OF 19N. IT
IS...HOWEVER...WELL DEFINED OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WILL NOT HAVE A STRONG IMPACT IN CONTINENTAL REGIONS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 98W AND SOUTH OF 17N. ON
WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WEST MEXICO. WHILE IT
EXITS WESTWARD...MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MAINTAIN THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON CONVECTION FROM NAYARIT
INTO SONORA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHEN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. NOTE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR MCS FORMATION ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
ALAMO/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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