579
FXCA20 KWBC 101228
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
828 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG
10/12UTC: IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N 63W INTO
HISPANIOLA...WHILE A TUTT LOW CENTERS NEAR 17N 56W. A SET OF
TROPICAL WAVES CLOSE TOGETHER ARE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EASTERNMOST WAVE IS CROSSINC CENTRAL PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THESE WAVES IS
LOCATED IN AREAS WEST OF 69W...THE MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN WAVE IS FAVORING SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. AS THIS MOIST PLUME CROSSES THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES...EXPECT THE
LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS TO CLUSTER ALONG SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST
PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY TO FAVOR MAXIMA N EAR 1 INCH. AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN FAR NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA NEARING 1 INCH AS WELL.
REGARDING THE FORECAST...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THUSDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY AS A DRY AIR MASS ACCOMPANIED BY
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL ASSOCIATE WITH
PREVIPITABLE WATER NEARING 35MM. EXPECT FRIDAY PRECIPITATION TO BE
VERY ISOLATED AND CLUSTER IN THE SOUTHWEST CORDILLERA...FAVORING
LOCALIZED MAXIMA NEAR 0.75 INCHES. THE NEXT MOIST PLUME ARRIVES
EARLY ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE TUTT. THE TUTT IS
PROGRESSIVE...AND IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY RETROGRADE FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO 16N 72W OR SOUTH OF HAITI
BY EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AS THE MOIST
PLUME INTERACTS WITH THE TUTT...BUT RAPID PROGRESSION WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL AMOUNTS. AT THE MOMENT WE EXPECT ENHANCED EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST PR TO FAVOR MAXIMA NEAR 0.75
INCHES...WHILE AFTERNOON MAXIMA OF 0.5-0.75 IS EXPECTED IN
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
A DRYING TREND FOLLOWS. ON SUNDAY...UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY
TRADES...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.5-0.75 IN SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION FAVORS MAXIMA UNDER 0.75 INCHES
IN FAR NORTHWEST OR AND MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 0.3 INCHES IN THE
WESTERN CORDILLERA. THIS DECREASES FURTHER ON MONDAY TO MAXIMA OF
0.15 IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE
CORDILELRA FAVORS MAXIMA NEAR 0.2 INCHES.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page