911
FXCA20 KWBC 111201
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG
11/12UTC: A TUTT LOW CENTERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT EXTENDS
INTO 23N AND INTO NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. THE TUTT IS RAPIDLY
RETROGRADING...AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS PUERTO RICO FROM EAST TO
WEST ON SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE TRADES ARE
FROM TEH SOUTHEAST. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS CROSSING THE
ISLANDS...WHICH ASSOCIATES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...CURRENTLY NEAR 35MM.
CONSISTENT WITH THE ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE
CLOUDINESS CURRENTLY OVER THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
ON FRIDAY...AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CROSSES THE ISLANDS...EXPECT
A MINIMUM IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN
CORDILLERA...AND RAINFALL MAXIMA BELOW 0.2 INCHES. THE TUTT
CROSSES ON SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A MOIST PLUME MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THE MOIST PLUME ENTERS EARLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL HIGHLIGHT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS IN EASTERN PR AND
THE WESTERN VI...FAVORING MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 0.5 INCHES.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS PRONE TO ENHANCEMENT BY THE TUTT.
YET...SHORT RESIDENCE TIMES DUE TO DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WILL
LIMIT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE LARGEST AMOUNTS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST
PUERTO RICO WHERE ISOLATED MAXIMA NEARING 1 INCH IS LIKELY.
AFTER THIS PERIOD...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO OSCILLATE
BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE TRADE WIND CAP IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT MORNING SHOWERS TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.4 INCHES
IN SOUTHEAST PR...WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION FAVORS MAXIMA OF
0.3-0.5 INCHES IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. ON MONDAY THIS DECREASES
TO MAXIMA UNDER 0.2 INCHES IN EASTERN OR AND OF 0.2-0.3 INCHES IN
NORTHWEST PR. ON TUESDAY...EASTERLY TRADES RETURN...TO FOCUS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...TO PRODUCE MAXIMA OF
0.2-0.3 INCHES.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page