962
FXCA20 KWBC 141230
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG
14/12UTC: A SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST WILL BE PREVALENT
OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
OVER PR/USVI. MOISTURE STARTS INCREASING IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...WHILE A DECREASE IN SAHARAN DUST CONCENTRATION IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE GEOS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 39W THAT COULD
APPROACH PR/USVI LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 700MB WINDS AND
RELATIVE VORTICITY DOES CORRELATE WITH THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE DURING THAT TIME. A TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST OF PR/USVI
WILL MOVE WEST...EXPECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF PR BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THIS TUTT WILL ELONGATE AND REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK AND CENTER NEAR JAMAICA ON FRIDAY. THIS MEANS
THAT AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET AND HAZY START TO THE WEEK...WITH
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
WOULD BE EXPECTED ON THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORKWEEK DUE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...AS WELL AS THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SAHARAN DUST...AND MOISTURE IS TRENDING TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA...CAUSING BRIEF MOMENTS WITH RAIN ACROSS THE USVI INTO
EASTERN PR THIS MORNING. LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED WITH THE OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY BEING BRIEF OVER ANY
ONE POINT. A SIMILAR RAINFALL PATTERN WOULD BE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...TUESDAY BEING THE DRIEST DAY OVERALL. FROM TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST IS NEAR 1 INCH ACROSS
THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST PR...A LITTLE OVER
1.5 INCHES ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF WESTERN PR...AND UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR THE USVI. SINCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE 5-DAY TOTAL
RAINFALL FORECAST HAS OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN FOR EAST/NORTHEAST
PR...NEAR 2.5 INCHES FOR WESTERN PR...AND OVER 0.75 INCHES FOR THE
USVI.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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