833
FXCA20 KWBC 141842
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: THE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORKWEEK THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS
APPROACHING SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER THAN
NORMAL AIR...WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS HOWEVER A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE
TROPICAL REGION THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL BE NEAR
LONGITUDE 76W TONIGHT AND AN INDUCED TROUGH ALONG 83W. THE INDUCED
TROUGH IS DUE TO A STRONG TUTT THAT WILL MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...CAUSING A SFC INDUCED TROUGH TO MOVE WEST...REACHING
92W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
INDUCED TROUGH AND TUTT WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. MEANWHILE THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS WILL BE A BIT QUIETER BECAUSE OF THE
STRONGER WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST MAY DECREASE
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES IN...SLIGHTLY
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAIN. THERE IS A TUTT THAT COULD ENHANCE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...BUT AS OF NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MAINLY ON THURSDAY.
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...BUT MAY
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS. THAT SAID...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...CAUSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND AROUND THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO TODAY.
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL IS
EXPECTED TO OBSERVE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS IN A SMALL PORTION IN THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SINALOA AND
CHIHUAHUA...WITH MAX RAIN UP TO 50MM.
MOST AREAS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ARE FORECAST TO HAVE SOME
RAINFALL...GENERALLY WITH MAX VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 35MM...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW AREAS THAT WILL BE MENTIONED BELOW. THAT
BEING SAID...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN ANY GIVEN AREA. THEREFORE...VERY ISOLATED
AREAS COULD OBSERVE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN IN THE FORECAST.
TODAY...NORTHWESTERN PERU...NORTHERN ECUADOR...AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH
MAX VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 70MM...THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN
ECUADOR ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/00 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12
TW 15N 39W 45W 47W 50W 53W 55W 59W 62W 66W
TW 20N 72W 76W 79W 81W 85W 89W 91W 93W 95W
TW 22N 94W 97W 98W 99W 100W 101W 103W 106W 109W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 39W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE WEST OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM IN NORTHERN
FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 72W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. ON
MONDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
WESTERN HAITI. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
IN WESTERN CUBA...MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN COSTA RICA/WESTERN
PANAMA...AND GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM IN EAST-CENTRAL
PANAMA...EAST CUBA...AND JAMAICA. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHERN YUCATAN...AND 15-25MM IN
BELIZE/GUATEMALA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 94W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. ON
MONDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN SOUTHERN
GUERRERO/MICHOACAN...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHERN OAXACA...AND
MAXINA OF 15-25MM IN VERACRUZ. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15MM ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM IN SOUTHERN GUERRERO/OAXACA. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERACRUZ
ARE FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PORTIONS OF NAYARIT/JALISCO/COLIMA.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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