372
FXUS01 KWBC 150800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2023
VALID 12Z TUE AUG 15 2023 - 12Z THU AUG 17 2023
...DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SEES A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
RECENT OPPRESSIVE HEAT...
...FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS TUESDAY...
...MONSOONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE...
A DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT, WITH MOST OF THE REGION UNDER HEAT-RELATED
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID-100S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS, WITH 90S AROUND PUGET SOUND.
NUMEROUS NEAR RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE NEAR RECORD-TYING/BREAKING WARM LEVELS AS WELL,
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FORM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE DURATION OF HEAT, EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK, WILL INCREASINGLY POSE A HEIGHTENED
HEALTH RISK, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE AIR
CONDITIONING. MEANWHILE, SOME RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT HAS
FINALLY COME TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA WEST THROUGH NORTH TEXAS WILL
DROP BELOW SEASONABLE AVERAGES IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S.
OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS
ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-90S IN THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS, SOUTHEAST, AND FLORIDA, WITH UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. THESE
TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW FOR
SULTRY HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 110 TO 120F FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
NUMEROUS RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS AS
WELL. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SUMMER-TIME HOT BUT BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE AVERAGES. UNFORTUNATELY, PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF
COAST AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AND
NOT SEE ANY RELIEF. THE RELIEF LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS, WHERE 100S ARE FORECAST TO
RETURN TO MOST LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY.
TO THE NORTH, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
WHICH REMAIN AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL HELP LEAD TO THE RISK FOR
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN PLACE FOR THE RISK OF A FEW SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ALSO OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL
2/5) AS MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PASSING OVERHEAD WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP SHEAR
FOR A FEW MORE ROBUST, ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH A MORE ISOLATED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH INTO
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST EAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. THE FRONT WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
STORM CHANCES FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO FLORIDA
WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE/ORGANIZE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN
PLACE AS MOIST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SOME POTENT STORMS, WITH
THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL AS
STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE ALONG THE FRONT. HIGHS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY FOR
MANY LOCATIONS IN THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND, WITH
MAINLY 70S EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S
OUTSIDE OF NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH WARMER
FOLLOWING MORE MODERATION FURTHER WEST, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME LOCATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER MISSOURI VALLEY WILL
JUMP INTO THE UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY.
DAILY ROUNDS OF MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. DAILY HIGHS
WILL BE A BIT BELOW SEASONABLE AVERAGES AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS
DUE IN PART TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH UPPER 70S TO MID-80S.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
MORE BROADLY IN THE REGION WITH 70S ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST,
LOW TO MID-90S FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
AND 100S TO LOW 110S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA VALLEYS WILL TREND A BIT HOTTER WITH MID-100S
EXPECTED AND HEAT ADVISORIES IN PLACE.
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