172
FXCA20 KWBC 151844
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
244 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 15 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: ON TUESDAY...A
DISORGANIZED TUTT IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHILE A
TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY OVER MEXICO DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...AN INDUCED TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 35-50MM IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ON
WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT AROUND
104W AND 12N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHERE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH
THE INCOMING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO
WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
SINALOA/NAYARIT/JALISCO. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
YUCATAN AND NORTHERN CAMPECHE. ON THURSDAY...THE EFFECTS OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN MEXICO
WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
SOUTHERN MICHOACAN/GUERRERO.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...OROGRAPHIC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE
EASTERLY TRADES AND TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN WILL BE
THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
TUESDAY...BELIZE/GUATEMALA/EL SALVADOR/WESTERN HONDURAS ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE EASTERN HONDURAS/NICARAGUA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. WHILE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...COSTA RICA AND NORTHWESTERN
PANAMA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-6OMM. EASTERN NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS ARE EXPECTED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...EXTREME
EAST NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA ARE EXPECTED MAXIMA OF 20-50MM.
A SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN...BRINGING DRIER AIR AND LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN. ON TUESDAY...GENERALIZED MAXIMA
OF 10-15MM IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
NORTHWESTERN CUBA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE...AND GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS FORECAST. THE SAME
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. ON
THURSDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOISTURE AND
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...FAVORING MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
PUERTO RICO/VI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EASTERN CUBA...PORTIONS
OF THE BAHAMAS...AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA ARE EXPECTED GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A LARGE TUTT IS CENTERED
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ON TUESDAY...AND IS MOVING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA AS WESTERLY FLOW AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY
WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. WHILE EFFECTS OF THE BASE OF THE
TUTT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA. ON
WEDNESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE GUIANAS AND EASTERN
VENEZUELA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...THE TUTT
IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ITS BASE IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR VENTILATION AND CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE AREA IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE
TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WHERE WESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 16/00 16/00 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00
TW 15N 50W 53W 56W 60W 64W 68W 72W 76W
TW 20N 82W 85W 87W 89W 90W 92W 94W 97W
TW 22N 96W 99W 102W 104W 107W 109W 111W 113W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 50W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE GUIANAS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
IN NORTHERN GUYANA AND SOUTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND
GRANADA. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
EAST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTH AND WEST
VENEZUELA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 82W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA...AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN CUBA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHERN
YUCATAN...AND 15-25MM IN BELIZE/GUATEMALA...AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN TABASCO/NORTHERN CHIAPAS AND GUATEMALA...WHILE SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/SOUTH CHIAPAS/SOUTH GUATEMALA ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS OF
15-25MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 94W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 25-60MM IN
SOUTHERN OAXACAAND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. GUERRERO IS FORECAST FOR
MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-35MM IN PORTIONS OF NAYARIT/JALISCO/COLIMA AND SINALOA. ON
THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WESTERN SONORA
AND SINALOA.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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