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FXCA20 KWBC 161239
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
839 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM AUG
16/12UTC: A SIGNIFICANT CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER PR/USVI THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF
BREAK VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...BUT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST WILL AFFECT THE ISLANDS STARTING FRIDAY
MID-MORNING INTO THE WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY THEN
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY...ONLY TO DECREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND BUT
STAYING NEAR NORMAL. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY AND THURSDAY. THAT SAID...THERE IS
A TROPICAL WAVE...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AT 700MB AS WELL AS
RELATIVE HIGHER VORTICITY...THAT COULD APPROACH PR/USVI LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN ELONGATED TUTT FROM FROM
HAITI TO AROUND 26N/71W THAT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
DRIFTS SOUTH NEAR JAMAICA ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CAUSING
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER PR/USVI ON
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT MAY BE OVER HISPANIOLA
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THEREFORE...THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY LESS RAIN THAN IT DID BEFORE...AS THE
INSTABILITY AND FORCING OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...AND THE BEST UPPER AIR
INSTABILITY BEING A BIT FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST STILL
SUGGESTS THAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WOULD BE THE RAINIEST
PERIOD OUT OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH EAST AND NORTHEASTERN PR
HAVING THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PERSISTENT ADVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND IT COINCIDES
WITH THE NARROW SLOT OF AREA WITH LESS SAHARAN DUST.
FOR TODAY...THE TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST IS AROUND 0.3 INCHES NEAR
THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE OVER NORTHEAST PR...AROUND 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF WESTERN PR...AND UNDER A TENTH OF AN
INCH FOR THE USVI. THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST IS NEAR 3
INCHES OF RAIN FOR EAST/NORTHEAST PR...NEAR 2 INCHES FOR WESTERN
PR...AND BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH FOR THE USVI.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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