344
FXCA20 KWBC 161933
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
332 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 16 AUG 2023 AT 1930 UTC: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM
HILARY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HILARY MAY REACH THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SINALOA/NAYARIT/JALISCO. A TROPICAL WAVE TO
THE EAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN YUCATAN AND NORTHERN CAMPECHE. ON
THURSDAY...THE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN MICHOACAN/GUERRERO. THEN ON FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND
SINALOA AND TROPICAL STORM HILARY CONTINUES GETTING CLOSER TO THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS...COMBINED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.COSTA RICA AND NORTHWESTERN PANAMA IS FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 30-6OMM TODAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...NAMELY EASTERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WHERE
A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IS EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALL OF
CENTRAL AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO OBSERVE MOMENTS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAIN...WITH RAINFALL MAXIMAS RANGING FROM 25 TO 50MM IN DIFFERENT
SECTORS.
THERE IS ABUNDANT SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THE SAHARAN DUST IS
LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...LOWER
CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST SHALL AFFECT PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS...COMBINED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...COULD CAUSE ISOLATED BUT SQUALLY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS FORECAST TODAY..INCREASING UP TO
35MM ON THURSDAY. THEN THE BAHAMAS COULD OBSERVE UP TO 45MM WITH
POSSIBLE SQUALLS ON FRIDAY...BUT THE GREATER ANTILLES ARE FORECAST
TO OBSERVE UP TO 35MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. A LARGE TUTT IS CENTERED
OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TODAY...THE
GUIANAS AND EASTERN VENEZUELA...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
THURSDAY...THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WITH ITS BASE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...WHERE IT WILL
FAVOR VENTILATION AND CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE AREA
IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHERE WESTERN
COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO HAVE MAXIMAS BETWEEN 30-60MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00 19/12 20/00
TW 20N 38W 42W 56W 50W 54W 58W 62W 66W
TW 19N 65W 68W 71W 74W 77W 81W 84W 87W
TW 15N 85W 87W 89W 91W 93W 95W 97W 99W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 38W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...REACHING THE
GUIANAS ON FRIDAY...WHERE RAINFALL MAXIMA COULD REACH 20-35MM FROM
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 65W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19N IS
SURROUNDED BY SAHARAN DUST...AND ITS IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN IS LIMITED AT THE PRESENT TIME. TODAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 15-25MM OVER
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST...THE
WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA UP TO 35MM IN HAITI...WHILE WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA MAY HAVE MAXIMAS UP TO 45MM. ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY....THE RAINFALL MAXIMAS UP TO 35MM WILL BE OBSERVED OVER
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CUBA AND PANAMA...WHILE PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA
WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO HAVING UP TO 45MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 85W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N WILL
HAVE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS...CAUSING UP TO 35MM ACROSS
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND WESTERN COSTA RICA TODAY. WESTERN
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL OBSERVE
AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH FORECAST
RAIN UP TO 35MM. THE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WEAKENS BY
FRIDAY...BUT SOME RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...WITH TOTALS UP TO 25MM.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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