842
FXCA20 KWBC 171823
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 17 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE HILARY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ACCORDING TO THE FORECAST TRACK...HILARY MAY REACH THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND.
IN MEXICO...HURRICANE HILARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE ISTMO DE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION ON THURSDAY. EFFECTS FROM HILARY ARE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHERN JALISCO/COLIMA/MICHOACAN/GUERRERO AS WELL AS IN
NAYARIT/SINALOA AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AS WINDS AND
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM CONVERGE OVER THE AREA. GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-35MM ARE EXPECTED...WITH AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. TO THE EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN OAXACA/PUEBLA AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 35-70MM AS HURRICANE
HILARY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A NORTHERLY TRACK. ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. CENTRAL MEXICO
IS EXPECTED TO SEE AMOUNTS OF 30-60MM AS THE TROPICAL WAVE
CONTINUES WEST. ON SATURDAY...THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS
FORECAST FOR MAXIMA BETWEEN 50-100MM...WHERE NORTHERN PORTIONS MAY
SEE LOWER MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...THE PASSING OF TROPICAL
WAVES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL JETS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED BETWEEN JAMAICA
AND HAITI IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WEST AND WEAKEN BY SATURDAY. A
STRONG PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST OVER THE AREA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
PROPAGATING WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...AND A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY...EXTREME EAST
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE BAHAMAS...AND EASTERN
HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ALONG
NORTH PANAMA/COSTA RICA/EASTERN NICARAGUA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM WITH THE PASSING OF A TROPICAL WAVE. ON
SATURDAY...DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND LOWER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE BAHAMAS ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
BASIN...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN HAS ITS BASE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA ON THURSDAY.
TO THE EAST...VENEZUELA AND THE GUIANAS ARE LOCATED UNDER THE
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...PROVIDING VENTILATION ON
THURSDAY AND INTO THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PASSING OF
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER. ON THURSDAY...NORTH AND WEST
COLOMBIA...AND EAST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 25-60MM. ON FRIDAY...THE PASSING OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND
AND WESTERLY WINDS IN WEST COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
35-70MM...AND 30-60MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SOUTH CENTRAL
VENEZUELA MAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SATURDAY...WINDS FROM
THE WEST AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN WESTERN COLOMBIA CONTINUE AND
THE AREA IS FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE EAST-CENTRAL
COLOMBIA MAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO
EAST-CENTRAL VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 18/00 18/12 19/00 19/12 20/00 20/12 21/00
TW 15N 38W 40W 42W 45W 47W 50W 52W 54W
TW 20N 48W 50W 52W 54W 56W 59W 62W 64W
TW 25N 69W 71W 74W 77W 80W 82W 85W 87W
TW 25N 95W 95W 97W 99W 100W 101W 102W 103W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 38W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. IT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND REACHING THE
GUIANAS ON SUNDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 38W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N AND
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE GUIANAS FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY...WHERE
RAINFALL MAXIMA COULD REACH GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE FORECAST FOR
EXTREME EAST VENEZUELA/WEST GUYANA ON SATURDAY.
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 69W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N IS
SURROUNDED BY SAHARAN DUST...AND ITS IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN COULD BE LIMITED. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA. EAST HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS COULD
EXPECT GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF 15-35MM. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...20-35MM AND A
SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER IN THE BAHAMAS...WHILE CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST SIMILAR AMOUNTS. EAST PANAMA AND THE
DARIEN REGION ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...THE
WAVE WILL FAVOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN CUBA...EASTERN
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA..AND PANAMA. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE
WAVE MAY FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN THE BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 95W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. ON
THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO...AND 15-25MM IN PORTIONS OF OAXACA AND VERACRUZ. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL...AND 15-25MM ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE DEL SUR. ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE CONTINUES A SLOW
PROGRESSION...AND WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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