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FXCA20 KWBC 181831
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
230 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 18 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS MONITORING HURRICANE HILARY ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WHERE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 4-10
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND 4-8 INCHES ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR.
IN MEXICO...HURRICANE HILARY IS CENTERED AT 111.4W AND 17.4N AT
1500Z ON FRIDAY WITH A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND. TO THE EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY
OVER PORTIONS OF OAXACA/PUEBLA/VERACRUZ. ON FRIDAY...SOUTH BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST FOR 35-70MM...WHILE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
EJE CAFETERO TRANSVERSAL ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
SATURDAY...HURRICANE HILARY WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM OVER THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM OVER MOST OF WESTERN MEXICO. ELSEWHERE IN
THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND ORIENTAL...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE
EXPECTED. ON SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST FOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE CENTRAL MEXICO IS FORECAST
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-45MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED OVER JAMAICA AND ITS BASE OFFSHORE NORTH OF
PANAMA...CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TO
THE EAST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...FAVORING A TRADE WIND INVERSION CAP
THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A STRONG PULSE OF SAHARAN DUST
IS PRESENT OVER THE BASIN ON FRIDAY AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND IT IS EXPECTED TO ASSIST IN LIMITING PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR THE GREATER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...ROBUST TROPICAL WAVES
AND STRONG EARLY TRADES WILL MOVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FAVORING LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE ISLANDS. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
OVER CENTRAL-EAST CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM. ON
SATURDAY...THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AND STRONG EASTERLY
TRADES ACCOMPANIED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVES WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
WITH HIGHER ISOLATED MAXIMA POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE
WAVES WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN EAST PUERTO RICO/VI AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN WESTERN-CENTRAL
CUBA...WEST PUERTO RICO...AND EAST HISPANIOLA...EXPECT GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS
MOVING WEST AND ITS BASE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN
PANAMA COAST. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ACCOMPANIED BY TROPICAL WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS IN
THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SAHARAN DUST HAS
REACHED CENTRAL AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA/COSTA
RICA/WEST PANAMA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. EAST PANAMA IS
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...WEST COSTA RICA IS
EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AS WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ASSIST IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN COSTA RICA/PANAMA/EAST
NICARAGUA...AND EL SALVADOR ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
SUNDAY...PANAMA/COSTA RICA/EASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN SOUTH AMERICA...THE PERIPHERY OF AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER VENEZUELA ON FRIDAY. AS IT MOVES TO
THE WEST...THE AREA OF FAVORABLE VENTILATION ALSO MOVES WEST AND
IS EXPECTED TO ASSIST IN THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A TRAIN OF TROPICAL WAVES IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST
AND AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IN WEST COLOMBIA...IN
ADDITION TO A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM
IN WEST AND NORTH COLOMBIA. SOUTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA IS FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED WEST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND OVER EAST VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
25-50MM...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER LOCALIZED MAXIMA POSSIBLE. WEST
VENEZUELA AND NORTH CENTRAL COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE WEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 19/00 19/12 20/00 20/12 21/00 21/12 22/00 22/12
TW 16N 43W 46W 50W 54W 56W 60W 62W 64W 67W
TW 16N 53W 56W 59W 62W 65W 68W 70W 73W 75W
TW 25N 75W 77W 80W 82W 84W 86W 88W 91W 93W
TW 25N 96W 98W 99W 100W 102W 103W 105W 106W 108W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 43W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. IT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS AND REACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...FAVORING MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...GRENADA...TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE
FORECAST SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 53W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. ON
FRIDAY...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS EXPECTED OVER SURINAME/GUYANA. ON
SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 75W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...20-40MM AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SQUALLY WEATHER IN THE
BAHAMAS...WHILE CUBA AND HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST 20-35MM. EAST
PANAMA AND THE DARIEN REGION ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM. ON
SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN WESTERN
CUBA...AND GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN EASTERN CUBA...EASTERN
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA..AND PANAMA. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE
WAVE MAY FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN THE BAHAMAS. ON SUNDAY...THE
WAVE WILL FAVOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HONDURAS. EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA ARE
FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 96W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N AND IT
IS SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EJE VOLCANICO
TRANSVERSAL...AND 15-25MM ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. ON
SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN JALISCO/COLIMA/MICHOACAN...AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
NAYARIT...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DURANGO/SINALOA.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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