999
FXCA20 KWBC 211830
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 21 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: OF NOTE...TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN IS LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...APPROXIMATELY
CENTERED AT 70W AND 15N. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO
HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY AND HAVE IMPACTS OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
IN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. IN SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...TOTAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 300-400MM WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED.
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A POTENT MJO PULSE
AND THE ARRIVAL OF A KELVIN WAVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO ASSIST IN POTENTIAL HIGHER AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEPENING OF AN ITCZ LOW WEST OF COSTA RICA
AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION IS FORECAST
TO FAVOR CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC
BASIN FROM NICARAGUA TO COLOMBIA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY WEST INTO NORTHERN
MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS BY TUESDAY. CENTRAL PORTIONS OF COAHUILA AND
NUEVO LEON ARE FORECAST PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 100-200
INCHES...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
IN MEXICO...AN UPPER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL MEXICO WHILE A POTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST USA EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. TROPICAL
WAVES MOVING OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS...WHILE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES ARRIVES
IN TAMAULIPAS BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY
OVER TAMAULIPAS...NUEVO LEON...COAHUILA...AND PORTIONS OF
CHIHUAHUA AND SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH INTO THE UNITED STATES BY
WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO INTO MICHOACAN
AND GUERRERO...AS WELL AS EAST CHIAPAS...ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-35MM WITH THE PASSING OF TROPICAL WAVES. ON TUESDAY...NORTHERN
COAHUILA AND NUEVO LEON ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 60-125MM WITH
POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS LOCALLY...WHILE IN THE SURROUNDING
AREAS IN CHIHUAHUA...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COAHUILA/NUEVO
LEON...AND TAMAULIPAS COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THESE AREAS
COULD EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WEST INTO VERACRUZ AND PUEBLA...ARE FORECAST MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO ARE
FORECAST SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON WEDNESDAY...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE
EXPECTED OVER CHIAPAS...TABASCO...SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ..JALISCO...MICHOACAN...GUERRERO...AND SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA AND MAKING ITS WAY NORTH. TO THE NORTH...PREFRONTAL
SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEAST USA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
NORTHEASTERN CUBA BY TUESDAY. ON MONDAY...EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ARE FORECAST 30-60MM...AND WESTERN
HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRECIPITATION FROM TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. WESTERN CUBA
IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON TUESDAY...EASTERN HISPANIOLA IS
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 60-125MM...WESTERN HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. PUERTO RICO...SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN
CUBA...AND JAMAICA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE PREFRONTAL
SHEAR LINE OVER NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN CUBA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC....AND 20-35MM IN WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.
ELSEWHERE IN THE GREATER ANTILLES...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE ITCZ
IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF COSTA RICA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
THE REGION WILL FAVOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE PACIFIC COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MJO PULSE AND KELVIN WAVE WILL FAVOR THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ON MONDAY...SOUTHWEST PANAMA AND SOUTHEAST COSTA
RICA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 75-150MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
NICARAGUA...GUATEMALA..EL SALVADOR..AND WEST HONDURAS COULD EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON TUESDAY...AREAS FROM CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO
SOUTHWEST PANAMA ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 60-125MM...WHILE THE
DARIEN REGION IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IS
FORECAST FOR OTHER AREAS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...IN ADDITION TO
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES NORTH AND WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN NORTHWEST
COSTA RICA...AND 40-80MM IN WEST NICARAGUA...EAST EL
SALVADOR...EXTREME SOUTH WEST HONDURAS...AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA
AND THE AZUERO PENINSULA IN PANAMA. WESTERN GUATEMALA AND WEST EL
SALVADOR ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORING DRYER
CONDITIONS OVER THE GUIANAS AND EASTERN VENEZUELA. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE BRINGING SOME MOISTURE BUT LARGE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. TO THE
WEST...SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE FLOW FROM WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TO
WESTERN AND NORTH COLOMBIA. ON MONDAY...NORTHWEST COLOMBIA IS
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ALONG
CENTRAL VENEZUELA...CENTRAL COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN
ECUADOR...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST PORTION OF COLOMBIA IN THE DARIEN REGION IS FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN NORTH AND WEST
COLOMBIA...AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
ON WEDNESDAY...PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 22/00 22/12 23/00 23/12 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12
TW 22N 89W 92W 93W 95W 97W 99W 100W 101W 103W
TW 23N 102W 105W 107W 109W 111W 112W 114W EXITS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 89W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. ON
MONDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
NORTH CAMPECHE...TABASCO...CHIAPAS...AND GUATEMALA. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...EASTERN OAXACA...AND CHIAPAS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO.
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 102W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. ON
MONDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM IN
GUERRERO..MICHOACAN...CENTRAL JALISCO...SOUTHERN ZACATECAS...AND
NAYARIT. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
NORTHERN SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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