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FXCA20 KWBC 221224
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
824 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AUG 22/12UTC:
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPACT THAT TROPICAL STORM
FRANKLIN COULD HAVE ON PR/USVI. ALTHOUGH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FORECASTS FRANKLIN TO BE WELL TO THE WEST OF PR...AND
MAKING LANDFALL OVER HISPANIOLA...AS THE STORM MOVES NORTH AND
THEN POSSIBLY NORTHEAST...DEEP MOISTURE COULD BE PULLED NORTHWARD
AND OVER PR/USVI TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
AS THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE TO THE NORTH OF PR. THE RAINFALL
FORECAST INDICATES RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH
AND EASTERN PR WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE OTHER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PR AND THE USVI COULD OBSERVE LESS THAN ONE
INCH. AS FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH OVER HISPANIOLA AND
THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF
PR...THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE COULD GIVE
THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW...WHILE THE USVI IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THAT BEING SAID...SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH A
SLOT OF DRIER AIR...WHICH WOULD CAUSE A MINIMUM IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST RAINFALL TOTAL FROM TODAY INTO VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PR...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WHILE OTHER AREAS OF CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN PR AND THE USVI WOULD EXPECT LESS THAN ONE INCH. OUT
OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS...TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE ONE WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNT OF RAIN...AND THURSDAY THE DRIEST. HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF FRANKLIN...WHICH IS RATHER
DISORGANIZED...SO THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD.
ALAMO/ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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