910
FXCA20 KWBC 221829
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 22 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND WILL MAKE
ITS WAY NORTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...WHERE EXPECT 300-400MM IN SOUTHERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND 150-300MM IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA BY
EARLY SATURDAY.
A STRONG MJO PULSE AND A KELVIN WAVE CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO ASSIST WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM AN ITCZ LOW INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...FROM EL SALVADOR TO COLOMBIA.
TROPICAL STORM HAROLD HAS MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN TEXAS AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST...WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO. MAXIMA OF 75-150MM ARE FORECAST
AND LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
IN MEXICO...AN UPPER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL MEXICO WHILE A POTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST USA EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. TROPICAL
WAVES MOVING OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS...WHILE TROPICAL STORM HERALD MOVES QUICKLY
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ON TUESDAY...NORTHERN COAHUILA AND NUEVO
LEON ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 75-150MM WITH POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER
AMOUNTS LOCALLY...WHILE IN THE SURROUNDING AREAS IN
CHIHUAHUA...CENTRAL PORTIONS OF COAHUILA/NUEVO LEON...AND
TAMAULIPAS COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO VERACRUZ AND PUEBLA...AND MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO
ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW FROM
THE NORTH INTO VERACRUZ WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED OVER
CHIAPAS...TABASCO...JALISCO...MICHOACAN...GUERRERO...AND SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS. REMNANTS FROM HAROLD PASSING OVER CHIHUAHUA COULD
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
RETROGRADING INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND AND INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...OAXACA...AND CHIAPAS
ARE FORECAST GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-45MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN JALISCO...COLIMA...MICHOACAN...AND GUERRERO.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH
OF HISPANIOLA AND SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY NORTH. TO THE NORTH...A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...PASSING
NEAR BERMUDA...AND INTO THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. ON TUESDAY...EASTERN
HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 60-125MM...AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA
IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. PUERTO RICO...SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS...EASTERN AND WESTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA ARE FORECAST
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SLOW PROGRESSION
OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 60-125MM IN SOUTH
AND EAST HISPANIOLA....AND GENERAL MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ELSEWHERE IN
HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE IN THE GREATER ANTILLES...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
ARE EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY...AS TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM LAND...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN HISPANIOLA. ADDITIONALLY...A RIDGE ALOFT WILL LIMIT
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA IS
FORECAST A MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...MAXIMA DO NOT EXCEED 25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AN AREA OF HEAVY CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ IS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF COSTA RICA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
THE REGION WILL FAVOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE PACIFIC COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THIS
AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MJO
PULSE AND KELVIN WAVE WILL FAVOR THE DEEP CONVECTION. ON
TUESDAY...AREAS FROM CENTRAL COSTA RICA TO SOUTHWEST PANAMA ARE
FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 75-150MM...WHILE THE DARIEN REGION IS FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IS FORECAST FOR OTHER AREAS
OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OD 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER MOVES NORTH INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA
AND SOUTH INTO COSTA RICA AND WILL FAVOR 50-100MM. SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE
ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA EXPECT A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
THURSDAY...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND EL SALVADOR ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. BELIZE AND GUATEMALA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
15-30MM...WHILE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORING DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE GUIANAS AND EASTERN VENEZUELA. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE BRINGING SOME MOISTURE BUT LARGE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. TO THE
WEST...SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE FLOW FROM WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BRING MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TO
WESTERN AND NORTH COLOMBIA. ON TUESDAY...THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
PORTION OF COLOMBIA IN THE DARIEN REGION IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
50-100MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN NORTH AND WEST COLOMBIA...AND
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE FORECAST.ON
WEDNESDAY...PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 23/00 23/12 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12
TW 22N 95W 97W 102W 104W 106W 107W 109W 112W 115W
TW 23N 107W 110W 113W 116W 119W EXITS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 95W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...GUERRERO...EASTERN OAXACA...AND CHIAPAS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHERN
GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO. BY
THURSDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH MINIMAL IMPACT EXPECTED OVER
THE CONTINENT.
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 107W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHERN
SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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