178
FXCA20 KWBC 231243
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
842 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AUG 23/12UTC:
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS PR/USVI TODAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THERE IS SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT
DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES ON THURSDAY...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY...UP TO 2 INCHES BY
FRIDAY EVENING... THEN REMAINING BETWEEN 2 AND 2.4 INCHES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PR/USVI IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...GIVEN THE DRIER AIR THAT IS
MOVING IN AND THE SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED...AS THERE IS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH COULD MOVE IN LATER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE EGDI
ALGORITHM ALSO INDICATES THAT THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE COULD MOVE IN LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN.
THE FORECAST RAINFALL TOTAL FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH ACROSS PR...WITH WESTERN TO
NORTHWESTERN PR OBSERVING UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN...WHILE THE
USVI OBSERVE LITTLE TO NO RAIN. THE WEEKEND FORECAST HAS A BIT
MORE RAIN IN THE FORECAST...SATURDAY BEING THE RAINIEST DAY WITH
OVER A HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN
PR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. THE 5-DAY RAIN TOTAL IS
FORECAST HAS NORTHWESTERN PR RECEIVING THE MOST RAIN WITH TOTALS
OF UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES...WHILE EASTERN PR AND THE USVI
RECEIVING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
ALAMO/ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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