777
FXCA20 KWBC 231836
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 23 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN
HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS CENTERED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
18.9N AND 70.9W AT 1500 UTC...AND IT IS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER HISPANIOLA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE
STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND
BRING PRECIPITATION TO HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS BY THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...A DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OFFSHORE TO THE WEST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS LOW IS ASSISTED BY THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM A STRONG MJO
PULSE AND A KELVIN WAVE...AS WELL AS A TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS
CENTERED BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...RETROGRADING
WESTWARD...AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 60MM
ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN OF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN
COUNTRIES AND HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM COSTA RICA
TO EASTERN EL SALVADOR BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
IN MEXICO...THE REMNANTS OF HERALD HAVE MOVED NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN TEXAS/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. A POTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN USA EXTENDS INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO...FAVORING DRIER CONDITIONS. TO THE SOUTH AN UPPER TROUGH
CENTERED BETWEEN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS INTO
CHIAPAS...FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NORTHERN VERACRUZ DUE TO A MOISTURE PLUME
ENTERING FROM THE EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FROM NORTHEAST LLJ WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ ALONG THE OAXACA BORDER. THE PASSING OF A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN JALISCO/COLIMA/MICHOACAN WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/OAXACA/CHIAPAS/TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN GUERRERO.
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
AND JALISCO/COLIMA/MICHOACAN. ON WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH OF GUERRERO IS DEEPENING AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND
INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW TO FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHERN MICHOACAN/GUERRERO/OAXACA. IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN THE AREA.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN IS OVER HISPANIOLA AND
TRACKING TO THE NORTH. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE FRONT LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC...PASSING SOUTH OF BERMUDA...AND INTO THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA. ON WEDNESDAY...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-150MM IN SOUTH-CENTRAL HISPANIOLA....AND
GENERAL MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE IN
THE GREATER ANTILLES...MAXIMA OF 15-35MM ARE EXPECTED. ON
THURSDAY...AS TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM LAND...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE. HISPANIOLA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN MAXIMA DO NOT EXCEED 25MM. ON
FRIDAY...TRAILING MOISTURE FROM FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN EASTERN HISPANIOLA. WESTERN
HISPANIOLA...CUBA...THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...MAXIMA DO NOT EXCEED 25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...A DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
JUST WEST OF COSTA RICA OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SIGNIFICANT
ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION
WILL FAVOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SIGNIFICANT UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MJO PULSE AND KELVIN WAVE WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION. ON
WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOVES NORTH INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTH INTO COSTA RICA AND
WILL FAVOR 75-150MM AND HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE
SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA EXPECT A MAXIMA OF
20-45MM.
ON THURSDAY...THE GOLFO DE FONSECA REGION IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
50-100MM AND ITS SURROUNDING AREAS IN EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND
NICARAGUA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. NORTHERN
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE COULD EXPECT A MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE EASTERN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TOWARDS GUATEMALA GUIDED BY THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. GUATEMALA...BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND EL
SALVADOR ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. EASTERN
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA ARE FORECAST A GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORING DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE GUIANAS AND
EASTERN VENEZUELA AND MOVING WESTWARD. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A FEW
TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MOISTURE INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...CENTRAL
VENEZUELA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM....WHILE NORTH AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
AND EXTREME NORTHWEST VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...NORTH AND WEST COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AND MAXIMA DO NOT
EXCEED 25MM IN SOUTH AND WEST COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12
TW 22N 102W 104W 106W 108W 110W 112W 115W EXITS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 102W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHERN
GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO...AND MAXIMA
OF 12-25MM ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. BY
THURSDAY...MOST OF THE IMPACT IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN SONORA AND
NORTHERN SINALOA WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BY THURSDAY...THE WAVE IS
FORECAST OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED
AND AFTERWARDS IT WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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