560
FXCA20 KWBC 241246
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
846 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AUG 24/12UTC:
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN...LOCATED NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...WILL
CAUSE A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER PR/USVI FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. DRIER AIR AND SOME SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN
ACROSS PR TODAY...BUT THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCAL CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN PR...CAUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...THE OVERALL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER TODAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS LITTLE PRECIPITATION IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS. ONLY
ISOLATED AREAS OF RAINFALL OF OVER 0.25 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO NORTHERN PR...WHILE ALSO HAVING SIMILAR
AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW A BETTER CHANCE OF SLIGHTLY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...ALBEIT STILL LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN
OVERALL. THE EGDI ALGORITHM DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY OVER THE WATERS JUST WEST
AND NORTH OF PR. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS
WEEKEND...THERE APPEARS TO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT IT STILL MAY
BE LIMITED TO A FEW AREAS. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...MONDAY WOULD BE
FAIRLY DRY AS WELL AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LOCAL WINDS
COULD RETURN TO BEING EASTERLY BY TUESDAY...AND WITH NEAR NORMAL
MOISTURE BY THEN AND THE EASTERLY WINDS...LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN PR WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
THE FORECAST RAINFALL TOTAL FROM TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS
FOR JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PR...WITH
OTHER AREAS OF PR RECEIVING LESS THAN THAT. THE NORTHERN USVI ARE
FORECAST TO OBSERVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED FOR ST
CROIX. THE 5-DAY RAIN TOTAL IS FORECAST HAS NORTH CENTRAL PR
RECEIVING THE MOST RAIN...WITH TOTALS OF UP TO AROUND 1.25
INCHES...WHILE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PR...AS WELL AS THE USVI
RECEIVING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
ALAMO/ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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