914
FXCA20 KWBC 241733
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
132 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 24 AUG 2023 AT 1730 UTC: OF NOTE...A
DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFFSHORE TO THE WEST OF
NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS LOW IS ASSISTED
BY THE UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM A STRONG MJO PULSE...AS WELL AS A
TUTT IN THE UPPER LEVELS CENTERED ONSHORE WEST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...RETROGRADING WESTWARD...AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 60MM ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR STRONG CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF
EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA ON
THURSDAY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA.
THIS SYSTEM IS UNDER WATCH BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK.
IN MEXICO...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO
THE NORTHERN REGION OF MEXICO FAVORING DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE
AREA. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A TUTT CENTERED OFFSHORE WEST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...IS RETROGRADING
INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...WHERE THE BASE IS FAVORING PRECIPITATION AS
IT CONTINUES WEST OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
WEST MEXICO IS EXITING LAND AND MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ON THURSDAY...THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL...SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...AND SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/OAXACA/CHIAPAS/TABASCO ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
JALISCO/COLIMA AND WESTERN MICHOACAN ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MEXICO...MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED UNDER
25MM. ON FRIDAY...A DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG
THE PACIFIC COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND EL SALVADOR IS FORECAST
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM WESTERN
OAXACA AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ TO CAMPECHE/QUINTANA ROO. THE STATE
OF YUCATAN COULD SEE LOWER MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SOUTHERN
JALISCO/COLIMA/MICHOACAN/GUERRERO ARE FORECAST A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OVER
THE PACIFIC AND COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE CLOSER TO SHORE AND BRING
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS. ELSEWHERE TO THE
WEST AND EAST PORTIONS OF MEXICO...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE FORECAST.
ON SATURDAY...MAXIMA OF GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IS FORECAST
OVER THE YUCATAN AND ALONG WEST MEXICO. ELSEWHERE MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IS EXPECTED.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN IS MOVING NORTHWARD AND
IS OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC...TO THE EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. ON THURSDAY...FEEDER
BANDS FROM FRANKLIN WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM OVER NORTHWEST
HISPANIOLA...AND MAXIMA OF 15MM OVER TURKS AND CAICOS AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA...CUBA..AND
JAMAICA...EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW RELATED TO THE NORTHWARD MOVING TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN EASTERN HISPANIOLA...WHILE WESTERN
HISPANIOLA MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED. ON
SATURDAY...HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ARE FORECAST GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...THE MAXIMA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE DISORGANIZED LOW SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
BRING PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA AND ENTER THE ISTHMUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY
NEXT WEEK THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. ON THURSDAY...EAST-CENTRAL EL SALVADOR...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST HONDURAS...AND WESTERN NICARAGUA ARE FORECAST A MAXIMA
OF 50-100MM...WITH HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE IN
GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN BELIZE...EL SALVADOR...CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND
CENTRAL NICARAGUA EXPECT A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA ARE FORECAST GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH ALONG GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR...WHERE EXPECT A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BELIZE AND WESTERN
HONDURAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SIMILAR AMOUNTS. EASTERN
HONDURAS...NORTH NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND WESTERN PANAMA ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...MOST OF GUATEMALA AND
SOUTHERN BELIZE IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN
CENTRAL AMERICA...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS FORECAST.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
MORE NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE EXCEPTION IS NORTH AND WEST COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA...AS ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER ARE LOCATED OVER THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
ARE FORECAST IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. ELSEWHERE IN VENEZUELA
AND COLOMBIA...MAXIMA ARE FORECAST TO NOT EXCEED 25MM. ON
FRIDAY...THE SAME AREA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. AND ON
SATURDAY...THE PASSING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12
TW 23N 41W 42W 45W 47W 50W 52W 54W
TW 22N 106W 108W 110W 112W 115W EXITS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 41W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N.
THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 102W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. BY
THURSDAY...MOST OF THE IMPACT IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN SONORA AND
NORTHERN SINALOA WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BY FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS
FORECAST OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED
AND AFTERWARDS IT WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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