787
FXCA20 KWBC 251204
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
804 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AUG 25/12UTC:
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN...LOCATED AROUND 300 MILES TO THE NNW OF
AGUADILLA OF PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE ENE TODAY THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THIS TRACK
WILL CAUSE A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER PR/USVI THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLY RETURNING ON TUESDAY AS A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO
THE NORTH OF PR/USVI...TO THE WNW OF BERMUDA BY THEN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO 2 INCHES
TODAY...BUT INCREASE TO AROUND 2.4 INCHES BY TONIGHT...REMAINING
BETWEEN 2.4 AND 2.1 THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE NORTH AND OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY...KEEPING NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM SUNDAY UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY. THE
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM TODAY INTO SATURDAY MAY HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO NORTHERN PR IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BUT A TROPICAL WAVE COULD MOVE IN FOR
TUESDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED AND THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WOULD BE OVER
ISOLATED AREAS. THE EGDI ALGORITHM DOES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND NORTHERN PR DUE TO MOISTURE
ADVECTION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
THE FORECAST RAINFALL TOTAL FROM TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INDICATES JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PR...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS...WHILE OTHER AREAS
OF PR WOULD OBSERVE 0.75 INCHES OR LESS. THE EASTERNMOST
MUNICIPALITIES ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN
THIS WEEKEND...WITH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE NORTHERN
USVI ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED FOR ST
CROIX. THE 5-DAY RAIN TOTAL FORECAST HAS NORTH CENTRAL PR
RECEIVING THE MOST RAIN...WITH TOTALS OF UP TO AROUND 1.25 - 1.5
INCHES...WHILE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PR...IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE
UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN. THE USVI ARE FORECAST 0.5 INCHES OR LESS
THROUGH THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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