358
FXCA20 KWBC 251758
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
157 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 25 AUG 2023 AT 1800 UTC: OVER MEXICO...A TUTT IS
MOVING WEST OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ENTERING THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. ITS BASE IS CROSSING
OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO/OAXACA AND INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS
WILL FAVOR SOME VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. IN ADDITION...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS BRINGING RAIN INTO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM
OVER QUINTANA ROO AND PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF YUCATAN. ELSEWHERE
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...JALISCO...VERACRUZ...SINALOA AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SONORA...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-35MM. ON SATURDAY...THE TUTT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO. TO THE SOUTH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE PACIFIC MOVES CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF
JALISCO/COLIMA/MICHOACAN. ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ALONG NAYARIT/JALISCO/COLIMA/GUERRERO. TO THE
EAST...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SEE EFFECTS FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS
SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM
FROM QUINTANA ROO. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA CAN
EXPECTED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SOUTHERN SINALOA...SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS...AND NORTHERN VERACRUZ ARE FORECAST GENERALIZED MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. ON SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESS SLOWLY
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST.
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN.
WHILE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN INTO
VERACRUZ AND NORTHERN OAXACA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH
OF JALISCO/COLIMA/MICHOACAN CONTINUES TO BRING ONSHORE FLOW AND
EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF NAYARIT AND SOUTHERN SINALOA...WHERE
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...AND 20-45MM IN MICHOACAN AND GUERRERO.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN MOVES SLOWLY IN A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND IS LOCATED TO THE JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA
AND TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS. IT WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM LAND...HOWEVER EFFECTS FROM
FRANKLIN EXTEND INTO PUERTO RICO AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY. PUERTO RICO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDS INTO WESTERN
CUBA...AS HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SYSTEM WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...AND 15-25MM IN
WEST-CENTRAL CUBA. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE SOUTHERN
LESSER ANTILLES...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN IS LOCATED OVER THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING RAINFALL INTO WESTERN CUBA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM. THE MAJORITY OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SEE
MAXIMA BELOW 25MM. ON SUNDAY...WESTERN CUBA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...WITH A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE OVER THE AREA DUE TO THE POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SEE DRIER
CONDITIONS...AS MAXIMA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...EFFECTS FROM THE ITCZ OVER THE ISTHMUS AND
ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL FAVOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON FRIDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION THE DAY BEFORE AND IS
NOW LOCATED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND
GUATEMALA. EL SALVADOR...PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...AND COSTA
RICA...WOULD SEE SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON SATURDAY...NORTHERN BELIZE IS
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE
ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA
EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. ON SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING MOISTURE INLAND. SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...EL
SALVADOR...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
25-50MM...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN COSTA RICA...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED
WHILE IN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND PANAMA...MAXIMA OF
15-25MM ARE FORECAST.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A MORE NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...WHERE A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE
PASSING OVER FAVORING PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON
FRIDAY...NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...THE SAME AREA IS FORECAST MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. NORTHEAST VENEZUELA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. AND
ON SUNDAY....NORTH AND WESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WHERE
GENERALIZED MAXIMA BELOW 25MM IS FORECAST.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12
TW 12N 37W 39W 41W 43W 46W 48W 51W 53W 56W
TW 22N 110W 112W 115W EXITS
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 37W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE WAVE WILL PROPAGATE WEST AND REMAIN OVER
OPEN WATER OF THE ATLANTIC. IT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA/GUIANAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 110W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. BY
FRIDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED AND AFTERWARDS IT WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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