971
FXCA20 KWBC 281247
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
846 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AUG 28/12UTC:
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY AS MAJOR HURRICANE FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOCAL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM AN
ESE TO EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY...REMAINING EASTERLY FOR THE
REST OF THE WORKWEEK. THROUGH MOST OF THE WORKWEEK THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING PR/USVI LATE TUESDAY AND WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING AT 2.3 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE WEEK...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE NEAR
AND AROUND 1.8 INCHES.
OVERALL A FAIRLY TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
GIVEN THE WIND FLOW AND THE INTERACTION THAT IT WOULD HAVE WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS. THE SOMEWHAT STABLE CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK
TRADE WIND INVERSION TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WILL LIMIT SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THEREFORE A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTING EASTERN PR AND THE
USVI IN THE MORNING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WOULD BE EXPECTED...AND
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NW-PR THIS AFTERNOON.
THAT SAID...THE TRADE WIND INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PR
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF PR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING. BY WEDNESDAY...THE
MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST THIS WEEK AND THE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THE EGDI ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT
HAS AN AREA FROM WESTERN PR INTO THE LOCAL WATERS SUGGESTING
POSSIBLE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE DECREASES FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO
DECREASES.
THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST IS
WEDNESDAY...AND TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIEST. THE 5-DAY RAIN
TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERN PR IS TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 3
AND 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN...AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR NORTHEASTERN
PR...AND BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES FOR THE USVI.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page