475
FXCA20 KWBC 281807
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 28 AUG 2023 AT 1810 UTC: THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER IS FOLLOWING TROPICAL STORM IDALIA LOCATED BETWEEN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. ITS SLOW PROGRESSION NORTH HAS
FAVORED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER WESTERN CUBA ON MONDAY AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
IN MEXICO...A DISORGANIZED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER MOST OF NORTH
AND WESTERN MEXICO...WHILE A UPPER HIGH FOLLOWS BEHIND ALSO MOVING
TOWARDS THE WEST...EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO. IN THIS AREA...VENTILATION IS FAVORING CONVECTION AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVES INTO THE
OPEN WATER OF THE PACIFIC...AND WILL FAVOR ONSHORE FLOW WITH AN
INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM SOUTHERN SINALOA TO SOUTHERN
GUERRERO. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA. SOUTHERN CHIAPAS IS FORECAST LOCALIZED MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND NORTHERN CHIAPAS AND
VERACRUZ ARE FORECAST GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. EFFECTS FROM
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN QUINTANA ROO
AND YUCATAN. ON TUESDAY...VENTILATION FROM THE UPPER DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM IN NAYARIT/JALISCO/COLIMA/MICHOACAN. A MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IS ALSO FORECAST FOR WESTERN SONORA/SINALOA. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM IDALIA ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM IN EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM SONORA TO GUERRERO WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE AREA. A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER CHIAPAS WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN EASTERN OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND CENTRAL MEXICO ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.
TROPICAL STORM IDALIA IS LOCATED WEST OF CUBA AND WILL BE MOVING
NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON MONDAY...MAXIMA OF 50-100MM ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LOCALLY. ELSEWHERE IN
CUBA...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. QUIETER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN AS A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN.
MAXIMA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20MM. ON TUESDAY...TWO AREAS OF
INTEREST ARE WESTERN CUBA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. WESTERN CUBA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SEE EFFECTS FROM IDALIA AND ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...WHILE CENTRAL
CUBA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE
PASSING OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. BY
WEDNESDAY...IDALIA HAS MOVED NORTHWARD...HOWEVER...RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER
THE WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
SIMILARLY...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...MAXIMA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS STATIONED OVER
MOST OF THE ISTHMUS. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA...AND 15-25MM IN BELIZE...NORTH GUATEMALA...EAST
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. CENTRAL GUATEMALA...MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IS
EXPECTED WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ON
TUESDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS MORE ZONAL FLOWS ARE
BEGINNING TO ESTABLISH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-35MM ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL JETS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES
WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE EASTERN SHORES OF
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALOFT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL
GUATEMALA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN BELIZE...EL
SALVADOR...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE PASSING OF TROPICAL WAVES AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGHS WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ON MONDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
25-50MM...WHILE SURFACE TROUGHS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA...AND
WEST VENEZUELA/EASTERN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
TUESDAY...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON WEDNESDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AND
CENTRAL COLOMBIA IS FORECAST A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12 31/00 31/12 01/00 01/12
TW 13N 35W 38W 41W 44W 47W 50W 53W 56W 59W
TW 15N 52W 56W 59W 62W 66W 70W 73W 77W 80W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 35W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13W. THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN UNTIL IT REACHES THE NORTHER GUIANAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 52W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. ON
MONDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR MINIMAL AMOUNTS NOT EXCEEDING
15MM IN NORTHEASTERN GUYANA. ON TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SOUTHEAST VENEZUELA.
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN
GUYANA. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
WEST VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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