854
FXCA20 KWBC 291239
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
839 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AUG 29/12UTC:
THE LOCAL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT...REMAINING EASTERLY FOR THE REST OF
THE WORKWEEK...POSSIBLY RETURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS INCREASING AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
LATER TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THAT
SAID...PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL STILL INCREASE GRADUALLY TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...FROM AROUND 1.7 INCHES THIS MORNING...PEAKING NEAR 2.2
INCHES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL THEN
DECREASE AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK...POSSIBLY INCREASING BY EARLY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA.
IN GENERAL...A TYPICAL RAINFALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THAT IS THE INTERACTION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND THE LOCAL EFFECTS. FOR THAT
REASON...A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND
EASTERN PR...MOSTLY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS...WHILE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
PR EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A WEAK TRADE WIND INVERSION
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT INVERSION IS
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR THAT REASON...THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MAX OUT AT LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MOISTURE
WILL BE AT ITS HIGHEST THIS WEEK AND THE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE. THE EGDI ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN PR INTO THE LOCAL
WATERS...THUS THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE OVER 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PR...WHILE NORTHEASTERN PR COULD OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH
OF RAIN DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE EXPECTED. MOISTURE
DECREASES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND THE EXPECTED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO DECREASES...THE RAINFALL MAX ACROSS W/NW PR
WOULD BE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH EACH AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE THE USVI AND EASTERN PR WOULD OBSERVE
MAINLY BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2 INCHES DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD.
THE 5-DAY RAIN TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERN PR IS TO
RECEIVE BETWEEN 4 AND 4.25 INCHES OF RAIN...AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR
NORTHEASTERN PR...AND BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES FOR THE USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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