393
FXCA20 KWBC 291833
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 29 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: IN MEXICO...AN UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. A DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT IS EXITING THE
COUNTRY AND MOVING WEST. VENTILATION FROM THE SYSTEMS ALOFT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF MEXICO...WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM IN SOUTHERN GUERRERO AND OAXACA...WHILE PORTIONS OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...AND JALISCO...AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL... WILL SEE GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS PASSING OVER
CHIAPAS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IS EXPECTED. SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COASTS
OF MEXICO...WHERE EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM
SOUTHERN SINALOA...TO CENTRAL OAXACA. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM JALISCO TO
OAXACA...AND GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
HURRICANE IDALIA IS LOCATED NORTH OF CUBA AND TO THE WEST OF
FLORIDA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH IDALIA WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN CUBA THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXTREME WESTERN CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE
CENTRAL PORTIONS COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE PASSING OF A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM IDALIA...AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WESTERN CUBA.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...MAXIMA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW LEVEL JETS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES AND
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE BASIN WILL FAVOR DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...WHERE MAXIMA WILL NOT EXCEED 25MM.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE INCREASING
IN SPEED. ON MONDAY...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM WITH THE INCREASE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT. NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND PORTIONS OF EL
SALVADOR...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CHIAPAS AND GUATEMALA WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AND 20-35MM IN
NORTHERN GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. AREAS OF
BELIZE...EAST NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN
PANAMA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA...MAXIMA WILL
NOT EXCEED 25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE PASSING OF TROPICAL WAVES AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGHS WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN
AMAZONAS-BRAZIL IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AND
CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST A MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...WEST AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND PARTS
OF THE GUIANAS ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 30/00 30/12 31/00 31/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12
TW 15N 42W 45W 48W 51W 54W 57W 60W 63W 65W
TW 15N 60W 64W 68W 72W 76W 79W 82W 85W 88W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 42W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15W. THE
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN UNTIL IT REACHES THE NORTHERN SURINAME AND GUYANA ON
THURSDAY...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 60W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. ON
TUESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA. MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHEAST VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN GUYANA. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WEST VENEZUELA AND EASTERN
COLOMBIA. ON THURSDAY...MAXIMA OF GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
ARE EXPECTED IN PANAMA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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