284
FXCA20 KWBC 301201
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
800 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AUG 30/12UTC:
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH A
POSSIBLE GRADUAL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY LATE ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SHIFT IN WINDS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF HURRICANE IDALIA...WHICH COULD BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF
PR/USVI THIS WEEKEND ACCORDING TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK. A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW APPROACHING HISPANIOLA WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY ACROSS PR/USVI. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OVER 2 INCHES TODAY...WHICH IS ABOVE
NORMAL...THEN DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AROUND
1.8 INCHES...PERSISTING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. SOME SAHARAN
DUST COULD BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS
WEEKEND UNTIL VERY EARLY MONDAY.
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY TYPICAL. THIS IS BECAUSE LOCALLY INDUCED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PR...AND TRADE
WIND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
USVI AND EASTERN PR IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TODAY...THE MOISTURE WILL REACH ITS HIGHEST LEVEL EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE EGDI ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN PR INTO THE LOCAL WATERS.
THE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE OVER 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PR...WHILE NORTHEASTERN PR
COULD OBSERVE OVER A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE EXPECTED...THE USVI IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITH TOTALS
NEAR A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOISTURE DECREASES FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD...AND THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALSO DECREASES...THE
RAINFALL MAX ACROSS W/NW PR WOULD BE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH EACH
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE THE USVI AND EASTERN PR
WOULD OBSERVE MAINLY BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2 INCHES DURING THAT SAME
TIME PERIOD. THE EXPECTED SAHARAN DUST SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
WOULD LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND THEREFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN PR ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR
LESS.
THE 5-DAY RAIN TOTAL FORECAST SUGGESTS NORTHWESTERN PR IS TO
RECEIVE BETWEEN 3.5 AND 3.75 INCHES OF RAIN...AROUND 1.25 INCHES
FOR NORTHEASTERN PR...AND BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.6 INCHES FOR THE USVI.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page