128
FXCA20 KWBC 301813
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 30 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: IN MEXICO...THE PASSING
TROUGH ALOFT OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO ARE
PROVIDING FAVORABLE VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. AREAS
FROM SINALOA TO COLIMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...AND SOUTHERN
MICHOACAN TO WESTERN OAXACA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE
PASSING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OVER
CHIAPAS AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
MEXICO CAN SEE AMOUNTS OF 15-25MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORING QUIETER CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE BASIN WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-25M IN WESTERN CUBA...NORTHERN BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO/VI...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ON THURSDAY...SIMILAR AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...IN ADDITION TO JAMAICA.
ON FRIDAY...THE PASSING OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN...MAXIMA WILL NOT EXCEED 25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST INTO SOUTHERN
MEXICO...WHERE MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ARE FORECAST OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE DEL SUR. JALISCO AND NAYARIT ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WHILE SONORA AND SINALOA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON FRIDAY...MAXIMA OF 20-45MM ARE EXPECTED FROM NAYARIT TO WESTERN
OAXACA...WHILE GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM ARE FORECAST FOR
15-35MM IN SONORA...SINALOA...CHIAPAS..TABASCO...AND CAMPECHE.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...A SHORT WAVE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS
MOVING WEST INTO BELIZE/GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS...AND WILL FAVOR
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. AN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT EXTENDS
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA PREVENTING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL JETS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE
FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICAN
COASTS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST
GUATEMALA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE BELIZE...NORTHWEST
HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...AND
EAST NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST SIMILAR
AMOUNTS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM GUATEMALA TO
NICARAGUA. AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ON FRIDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE
AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND EL
SALVADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO SEE THE PASSING OF TROPICAL
WAVES AND TROUGHS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH WILL BE THE MAJOR
PRODUCERS OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE HIGHER
LEVELS...AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED OVER COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA...PROVIDING VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION. ON
WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST IS FAVORING MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN WESTERN COLOMBIA...AND A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-35. ON
THURSDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH MAXIMA UNDER
25MM. ON FRIDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER VENEZUELA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. WESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST A MAXIMA OF 20-45MM DUE
TO CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 31/00 31/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12
TW 16N 49W 52W 55W 58W 61W 64W 67W 69W 71W
TW 16N 68W 71W 74W 78W 81W 84W 87W 90W 93W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 49W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15MM IN NORTH FRENCH
GUIANA. ON THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM OVER
NORTHERN SURINAME/GUYANA AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
VENEZUELA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 68W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WEST
VENEZUELA AND EASTERN COLOMBIA. AND MAXIMA O 15-25MM IN SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA. ON THURSDAY...MAXIMA OF GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN COLOMBIA...AND 20-35MM IN PANAMA.
ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN EASTERN
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...WHILE COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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