252
FXCA20 KWBC 311800
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 31 AUG 2023 AT 1830 UTC: IN MEXICO...A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MEXICO...WHILE TO THE EAST...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST
OF BERMUDA EXTENDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN MEXICO. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...ON SHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND INCREASED
PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO AND FROM
MICHOACAN TO CENTRAL OAXACA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
JALISCO AND NAYARIT ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
CHIAPAS...TABASCO...AND CAMPECHE COULD SEE MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND
SONORA/NORTHERN SINALOA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
FRIDAY...FROM SONORA TO CENTRAL OAXACA/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. CHIAPAS...TABASCO...AND CAMPECHE
MAY SEE SIMILAR AMOUNTS. THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
CHIAPAS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM CHIAPAS TO WESTERN
OAXACA/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN MEXICO AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...EXPECT MAXIMA BETWEEN 15-35MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...ZONAL FLOW FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA IS FAVORING QUIETER CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE ARRIVAL OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE ISLANDS. MAXIMA ARE
NOT FORECAST TO EXCEED 25MM THROUGHOUT THE BASIN ON THURSDAY. ON
FRIDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE SOUTH AND INTO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WHILE THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ELSEWHERE...MAXIMA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15MM. ON
SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA...WHERE EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.
HISPANIOLA WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH
AND WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE
FORECAST SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE LOW LEVEL JETS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES
WILL ASSIST IN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ON THE EASTERN SHORES OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FAVORING PRECIPITATION. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER PANAMA
AND MAKES ITS WAY WEST TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON THURSDAY...GUATEMALA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. BELIZE...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND EASTERN NICARAGUA
ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. PANAMA AND COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...AND GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ON
SATURDAY...RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO SEE THE PASSING OF TROPICAL
WAVES AND TROUGHS IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH WILL BE THE MAJOR
PRODUCERS OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
THURSDAY...NORTH AND WEST COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...MAXIMA ARE FORECAST BELOW
25MM. ON FRIDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN SEE MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM IN VENEZUELA...IN ADDITION TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
GUYANA. ON SATURDAY...ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST AND LARGE
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTH
AND WEST COLOMBIA. WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER VENEZUELA
WILL FAVOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM NORTHERN GUYANA TO
VENEZUELA AND INTO SOUTHERN COLOMBIA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12
TW 17N 56W 59W 62W 65W 68W 71W 74W 77W 80W
TW 18N 77W 79W 82W 85W 88W 92W 95W 98W 100W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 56W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. ON
THURSDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR A MAXIMA OF 15MM OVER NORTHERN
SURINAME/GUYANA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN VENEZUELA. ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE
MOVES INTO WESTERN VENEZUELA...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...WHILE IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...AND IN EAST AND NORTH COLOMBIA...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 77W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. ON
THURSDAY...MAXIMA OF GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED IN
WESTERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. ON FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...WHILE COSTA
RICA AND THE REST OF NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
WESTERN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
SATURDAY...THE WAVE IS FORECAST OVER CHIAPAS. THE WAVE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CHIAPAS/EASTERN OAXACA/EXTREME SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/TABASCO AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GUATEMALA. CAMPECHE...NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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