563
FXCA20 KWBC 011610
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1210 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 01 SEP 2023 AT 1600 UTC: ...NEXT BULLETIN WILL
BE POSTED TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 5 2023...
A DISORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS CENTERED OVER JALISCO,
MEXICO AND EXTENDS OVER THE COUNTRY AND INTO EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. A WEAK TUTT COVERS MOST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS IN THE UPPER LEVELS FAVOR
THE VENTILATION FOR CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PART OF MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND
DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...SEEING A
DECREASE IN RAINFALL ON SUNDAY. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND FAVORING PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...MOSTLY TO THE WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ARRIVE TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRIDAY EVENING AND MOVES TO CENTRAL MEXICO BY
SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL AND THE SIERRA
MADRE DEL SUR REGIONS CAN SEE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE
SONORA/SINALOA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO CHIAPAS ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE UPPER LEVELS STRENGTHENS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SONORA AND SINALOA BEGIN TO SEE A DECREASE IN
AMOUNTS. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES FURTHER WEST OVER THE TEHUANTEPEC
ISTHMUS AND WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM EASTERN
OAXACA/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ TO WESTERN CAMPECHE...AND 20-35MM IN
NORTH AND CENTRAL CAMPECHE. FROM JALISCO TO WESTERN
OAXACA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SONORA AND SINALOA ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SUNDAY...A MOISTURE PLUME ARRIVES OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND QUICKLY PROPAGATES WEST...AND WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN CHIAPAS AND TABASCO...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...OAXACA AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES TO CENTRAL MEXICO WHERE IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
FROM JALISCO TO WESTERN OAXACA.
A POTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS CENTERED AT
AROUND 73W AND 30N AND EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BASIN...WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER LEVELS NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO/VI CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRODUCING THE LOW LEVEL JETS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. TO THE NORTH...A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE USA IS MOVING SOUTH. THE SURFACE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY AND DEVELOP A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE TO THE SOUTH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS AND WESTERN CUBA. TO THE SOUTH...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EXPECTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHERN NORTH AMERICA
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON FRIDAY...THE LESSER ANTILLES
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE GREATER
ANTILLES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MAXIMA UNDER 25MM. ON SATURDAY...THE
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE OVER TURKS AND CAICOS AND CUBA WILL FAVOR A
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CENTRAL AND EAST CUBA...AND 15-25MM IN THE
BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...AND WESTERN CUBA. ON SUNDAY...THE
SURFACE FRONT PASSING OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND 15-25MM IN
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN CUBA. THE
TROPICAL WAVE REACHES HISPANIOLA AND WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA. EASTERN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO/VI CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE PASSING OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW LEVEL JETS IN THE EASTERLY
TRADES WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MAXIMA OF
30-60MM FROM EASTERN NICARAGUA TO EASTERN GUATEMALA ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO PANAMA ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
FURTHER WEST BUT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN WESTERN
GUATEMALA...AND 20-35MM IN BELIZE...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR.
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
SUNDAY...THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST...INCREASE IN
WESTERLY FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF COSTA RICA
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WITH A POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A MOISTURE PLUME MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN GUATEMALA...20-45MM IN
NORTHWEST HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR...AND 15-25MM IN BELIZE AND
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GUIANAS ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BE PROPAGATING
WEST OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ON
FRIDAY...WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN GUYANA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. WEST AND NORTH COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
SATURDAY...THERE IS AN INCREASE OF WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW INTO
WESTERN COLOMBIA WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER...WHILE TO
THE EAST...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN
VENEZUELA. NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST VENEZUELA
COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 35-70MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM. ON SUNDAY...THE
ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST OVER WESTERN COLOMBIA CONTINUES AND HAS
DEVELOPED LONG FETCH. WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. EASTERN COLOMBIA...AND NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA CAN SEE
MAXIMA BELOW 25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12
TW 17N 60W 63W 67W 70W 73W 75W 77W 80W 82W
TW 18N 85W 88W 90W 92W 96W 98W 100W 102W 103W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 60W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN GUYANA. ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN
VENEZUELA...AND FAVOR GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-35MM IN VENEZUELA
AND EASTERN COLOMBIA. PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA CAN SEE MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA...AND 15-25MM IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 85W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. ON
FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND EASTERN GUATEMALA. EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35 IN NORTHERN BELIZE...NORTH GUATEMALA...AND INTO
TABASCO AND CHIAPAS. NORTHER COSTA RICA CAN SEE SIMILAR AMOUNTS.
ON SATURDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
CHIAPAS/EASTERN OAXACA/EXTREME SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/TABASCO AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL GUATEMALA. CAMPECHE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM IN GUERRERO...AND 15-25MM IN OAXACA AND SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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