402
FXUS01 KWBC 042011
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2023
VALID 00Z TUE SEP 05 2023 - 00Z THU SEP 07 2023
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, NEAR RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. FOLLOWING THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...
...HEAVY RAIN AND SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...
...MORE SEASONABLE, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST AFTER A COOL
AND WET WEEKEND...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, CONTINUING THE
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AND IN SOME CASES RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HEAT
SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND. STARTING IN THE NORTHEAST, HIGHS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN THE MID- TO UPPER 80S IN NEW ENGLAND, THE LOW TO MID-90S
IN THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND THE UPPER 90S FOR THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. MANY NEAR RECORD-TYING/BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST. TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PLAGUED BY THE HEAT AS WELL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH MANY
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S OVERNIGHT, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT.
ONE MORE DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TUESDAY FOR THE UPPER
MIDWEST, WHERE RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES WERE SEEN OVER THE
WEEKEND, AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID-90S. HOWEVER, RELIEF IS ON
THE WAY, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
HELPING TO DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 60S. HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S FOR
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE 70S/80S FOR THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTH TO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AND GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE
OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ON
TUESDAY FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
ISSUING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE THREAT
OF SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ONE SPOT THAT WILL BE MORE
SEASONABLE, AT LEAST TEMPERATURES WISE, WILL BE FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MID-SOUTH
TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
IN THE WEST, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WITH A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN PLACE. HOWEVER,
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE TO THE EAST,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING FOLLOWING A COOL WEEKEND. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, COASTAL
CALIFORNIA, GREAT BASIN, AND ROCKIES; THE 80S FOR THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA VALLEYS; AND THE 90S TO LOW 100S FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB AROUND 5-10 DEGREES WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS.
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